Amped
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Everything posted by Amped
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Not a good day for tech tycoon billionaires to have their luxury superyatches out there.
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It matches Hurricane Dean pretty well in size and intensity.
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The Adt page says 903mb 155kt. Accurate for once.
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That's every global model showing landfall within about 10 miles. Amazing agreement, this didn't used to happen. Even 10 years back models would have a much larger spread 36 hrs out.
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Hurricane models actually did a good job forecasting an ERC and multiple intensity peaks. Dorian actually did a similar thing. Maybe not an ERC, but there was a pause in the intensification for almost a day.
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There is pretty low spread in the 12z tracks so far. GFS, Ukmet, Icon , Jma and even the cmc all track over Longboat Key from what I can tell.
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The cdo ring is still cooling FWIW. Maybe 5mb between passes is just noise for storms this deep.
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Raw ADT up to 7.8. It still has a ways to go to beat ETAs record of 8.4.
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The VDM says 899mb. I don't see a dropsonde yet.
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898.6 mb extrapolated
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Could be where it's at currently. My guess is it's leveled off there about an hour ago and has been steady every since.
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RAW T number up to 7.6 now, this is the highest in the basin since ETA.
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Not with a single recon flight. I think Wilma deepened a lot between flights. Eta did also, the recon had to abort due to turbulence. I hope they're staying safe in this one. I'd be nervous.
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A 32mb pressure drop since the start of the recon fight. I think this rivals the one flight into Opal if I remeber correctly.
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The organization is still improving on IR.
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I'm falling asleep now so of course it's RI time.
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Lets see if we finally get the recon pass with the 5mb pressure drop from the last one. So far it's only been 1-2mb between passes.
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The GFS is just really darn slow this run. Edit: GFS is still a northern outlier, unless you include the NAVGEM.
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My leaning too, plus the hype train for worst case scenario has already started. Nobody mentioning the best case scenario, the track shifts south and and the storm gets gutted by shear before landfall.
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The ICON almost hits the Yucatan. Well south of it's 12z run through 36hrs.
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This would be a historic collapse if it verified. Katrina, Opal and Lilly fell apart on final approach, but the pressure came up like 25mb on all of those storms. 60mb could be the difference between a Cat5 and a TS.
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The CMC has been so bad with storm tracks the last few years, I've stopped looking at it entirely.
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Hurricane models are showing a lot of weakening in the final 15 hrs before landfall. The core gets blasted with dry air on most of them.
