You can see a dryslot over the Delmarva and offshore. Probably why we have enhanced lift over us and heavier rates than any model showed. It's the opposite of March 2013.
Euro has a pretty strong low coming out of the central plains into the Ohio Valley late next week. It would likely result in a multiday severe outbreak. GFS looks totally different.
2018 Tornado stats from 4 states I handpicked. Tells most of the 2018 story.
WY: 14
OK: 10
VA:10
ID:9
Edit: Another tornado, right after I make the post. And of course, it's in Wyoming
GFS and ECMWF D9-10 showing a possible Philippines storm.
Storms don't often form below 10N, but when they do, there isn't much shear, and SSTS stay high year round in these areas.
Sandy definitely looked worse. If they had satellite in 1938 it probably wouldn't have looked much better. Transitioning storms aren't going to look as good on satellite.