Amped
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Everything posted by Amped
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The GFS doesn't handle thin warm layer well, therefore it's snow line is almost always too far south. I trust the NAM and the RGEM more with the R/S/IP line.
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Yeah thats why CWG went 3-6" everywhere it's all snow except but the MD line.
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I gave up watching the HRRR during snowstorms, it's the best way to drive yourself crazy.
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Yes even the NAM keeps Frederick all snow.
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Most models have the cutoff halfway up I270 somewhere between Gaithersburg and Urbana.
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Probably about right. It's a typical 4-8" event with more at the higher elevations. That means 3" and 10" on the bust and boom maps.
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Euro has more snow in Frederick than in Clarksburg, that rarely verifies.
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Euro was an outlier at 12z. Looks like it caved to every other model.
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Euro looks similar to the CMC judging by the SLP maps.
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That shows that we need to worry more about the surface than the 850 line.
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The r/s line isn't exactly glued the storm track here.
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UKMET, GFS CMC all agree on the low position at 72hrs, about 120 miles south of eastern Long Island. FV3 is about 50 miles north, but the Euro is over SE mass. Euro is definitely an outlier, but can still be right with some small adjustments. GFS and the ICON have the R/S line further southeast than other models. They maybe considered outlier too.
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Um, this happens a lot. Including March 2001 and half the events in KU. I95 mixed during the Blizzard of 96, the PDII and Feb 10 2010.
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FV3 and CMC also came south. Finally a good trend. Now maybe it will stick.
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GFS looks a bit flatter too through 42hrs. Edit: beating down the height field over the central and eastern US a lot more through 48hrs. 99% chance it's south of 18z.
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Icon is further south and quite a bit weaker along the gulf coast at 60hrs.
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Here's the NAMS epiclly marginal sounding for Frederick tomorrow night. Most of the lift is above the warm layer, so we'd have fatties launching an air strike on the warm layer and no sun to reinforce it. Probably switching back and forth on precip types.
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Nice to know what EDH1981 is up to now.
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Unless it trends colder and we get 33 and rain.
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Icon has been too far south with the rain/snow line all winter.
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More like 50, but most of it will still be gone.
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Probably the only 570dm snowstorm you'll ever see.
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Down to snizzle. That should about do it here unless something redevelops. Have about 4.5-5"
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But DC never Jackpots
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About 4.5" here in frederick, dryslot fast approching but still have SN+ for now
