You can see a dryslot over the Delmarva and offshore. Probably why we have enhanced lift over us and heavier rates than any model showed. It's the opposite of March 2013.
Not sure how the mean is offshore when so many members have much stronger lows further nowrthwest. The high to the northwest must be offsetting things quite a bit.
I don't see how we're getting snow out of this pattern with the + height anomolies ahead of the storm, they usually only trend wore with time. Euro gives northern areas a pretty good thump for now, but it is the furthest south of any of the 12z models.
40 in DC, 7" in Philly, 4"in NYC 0", in Boston. Seems legit, lock it up.
The 60 hour fantasy storm the GFS had last December was even better if I remember correctly.
The 50/50 low is not in the right spot for this event and there is an area of +height anomalies off the Mid Atlantic and New England Coast that will not be easy to work around. A rain to snow event kind of like the GFS is showing might be favored in that kind of pattern. It looks similar to 2013-2014 where we got a number of those.
Here is the shred factory in action. You can see the Jet streak over the great lakes and it's right entrance region that would have produced lift over us and help hold the system together, gets flattened and pushed east before the southern stream can get to us.
@ers-wxman1
Did a good job pointing out that we had limited potential with this setup after we lost the NS monday.