Amped

You could almost use the default snow map for CT that consists of a bunch of lines running SW to NE across the state. Fill in numbers as needed.

Time to move on to the day 11 triple phaser.

RGEM runs out to 72hrs? Gotta watch that cold pool aloft with the ULL. Some sort of a band will form on the NE edge of it. NYCs best shot at getting accumulating snow out of this.

I lived there growing up. It snows hard for an hour, then changes over. You get a lot of teases in that area.

1.3" liquid in 3 hrs its a physics problem too.

Most of it comes from the front end thump.

Anyone remember the Xmas 2002 storm? It was supposed to be mostly rain with more snow in NW areas. Started off that way, but changed over to snow and a band stalled over NYC, Long Island and CT, Ended up with 6-10 in those areas. That evolution reminds me of what the CMC is showing.

That's a big difference compared to 00z yesterday.

GFS does that too. It's like a meso it pins to the coast of long island, then cape cod.

More precip in the cold sector again. Low level jet cranking a bit more on this run but still could be better. GFS finally realizing this is a legit snowstorm and it might not be done yet.

Too early, it will come back south. The real north trend starts 36hrs out right after news stations issue numbers, so the areas initially forcasted to get 10-15, end up with 90 percent rain.

Gfs finally has a large solid area of heavy snow. In past runs, it looked like the jackpot was 30hrs or drizzle with some flakes mixed in. Even if it doesn't hit NYC, it's what you would expect from this type of storm.

Starting to hint at a Norlun like feature, which the GFS has too. Wouldn't be surprised with the closed H5 and the strong primary. Going to be a long multipart, confusing storm, kind of like the January mess we had in DC last year.

Possibly, it may happen in phases though. Initial deepening when the front hits the coast and then a second burst of deepening when the ULL moves offshore. You can already see models pulling the center back to the west when the ULL captures it as well as a convective blob forming near the center.

Pressure falls are pretty lame after the coastal forms. 997mb at 84hrs. 989mb at 108hrs.

GFS, CMC UKMET and ICON in pretty good agreement for 4-5 days out. Awaiting the final word of the Euro. GFS is probably over-deepening the low in the plains since it is 5-10mb deeper than other models.

CMC has a stronger high north of the lakes than any other model. Looks like the GFS from a few days ago.

Primary hangs on longer. Weaker baroclinic zone behind the storm. Accumulating snow will be further north.

I lost interest once it got rid of the high behind the storm. Now it's just a big hot mess.

Pretty good agreement between the GFS CMC and Icon at 144hrs

Im impressed that a monster bowling ball actually loses latitude between the plains and the east coast. Think of what could have been if it started weaker and further south.

Impressive to get a 980MB low over Nebraska to reform off of Atlantic City like that and bring snow to the NW burbs of NYC and PHL Don't think I've ever seen anything similar happen

Lol 18z GFS. Blizzard for Philly at 198hrs. Somehow it MillerBs that strong low over the Midwest. Kind of a December 2003 setup. 960mb low over Marthas Vinyard at 210.

Looks like a lot of crapvection caused by the mountains ahead of the line. Maybe it improves once it gets east and merges.

GFS keeps insisting on an impressive storm in the Caribbean next week. Most other models are not too bullish and show a minimal TS at best. This system originates from South America, which is kind of unusual and one of the reasons I'm not sold on the idea. A lot of heat potential in the western Carib, if something can stall over water long enough its an easy CAT 5 like Wilma or Mitch. There hasn't been a major in the western Carib in a long time. Mathew didn't really make it past the eastern tip of Cuba.