Amped
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Everything posted by Amped
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Wishing it was December 18th 2009
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I think this is the most inconsistent I've seen models with a day 7 storm in a long time.
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Euro is pretty bad at 120, not as far southwest as the UKMET, but close.
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Euro gives us some snizzle. A decent hit for Eastern New England. It now has a 950mb low south of Nova scotia where there was nothing yesterday.
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CMC has a low over hudsons bay. Not a hit unless it digs as fast as the GFS. J/K
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That was a nasty dive. The ULL went north of STL, then still went over Jacksonville. Edit so does the surface low. Forms near Wilmington then Drops south from 180 to 192, One of the most bizarre runs I've seen.
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GFS trying real hard this run. Edit probably going to get NC and Richmond. Took a sharp right after hr 156
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Digging for China on this run. Just need it to come about 700 miles north. Not good when the ULL goes over Jacksonville.
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Euro is really really doesn't want to let the southern stream take on a negative tilt. It could have started phasing in the MS valley instead of over the Bahamas, but the southern stream keeps moving southeast and stays positively tilted.
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The cmc has like 5 different surface low centers off the coast on the 22nd.
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GGEM going to nail the florida keys at 240.
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Need a bit more northern stream. Usually the troff is riding the 546dm or 552dm contour in the plains when we get a hecs. This one is on the 558
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Produces a very similar snow shield. The FEB 2010 storm had a 50/50 low much further west, and the ridge didn't fold over into the lakes like that. I'd give this one a more 2016/ 1983 hybrid look. It would easily close off H5 and match 2016 if the kicker was 12 hrs slower.
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This thing really fizzled. Big win for DR NO and dry air. Some models from last night had warning criteria snow in a few spots. Now we're down to "Oh look flakes"
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Thats a pretty good impression of the February 22 1987 storm on the GFS
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Kind of an odd wind trajectory. We had a storm like this in December 2013. It was rain for a lot of the metro area although the northwestern folks got snow.
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Well most people use the HRRR. I'm not sure what advantage the RAP offers.
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I'm still on the fence about whether or not the 12z Euro was a hiccup. 18z will be telling.
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Yes and outdated
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Trying to figure out how this Boston deathband popped up out of nowhere the last 2 runs. There has been a gradual trend to close the 700mb low off further south near Atlantic City instead of NYC. Doesn't quite explain why it suddenly gave March 1997 death band suddenly appeared.
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Every model is imagining it a dryslot in the exact same area.
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Its a nasty dryslot.
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Looks like every model agrees there's going to be a band of heavy snow in NNJ or somewhere near the NY/NJ border.
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Reminder. Tolland is in the dryslot of the upcoming storm. on every model.
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NAM up to it's usual crazy antics. Keeps the ULL slower in the OV. Then it elongates and negative tilts it further west than other models. We'll see if any other models in the 00z suite follow. Usually the answer is no.
