Amped
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Everything posted by Amped
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I think it made landfall over the southern half of Longboat Key, which is mysteriously missing from the COD radar map.
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Got my "Eye of the storm" playlist ready.
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The eastern part of the eye is a couple frames away from Siesta Key
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The main rainband looks like it will pass directly over Tampa. Models were showing 10"-15" rainfall totals in that band.
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Modeling didn't do a bad job. The tornado threat was overlooked by a lot of people who were distracted with things like ERCs, Recon passes, ADT numbers, and nitpicking every run of every model.
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The north wobble might be starting to correct itself, it's back on course towards Bradenton/ Longboat key. Pretty much the consensus over the last couple days.
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On radar, it appears to be moving ENE pretty fast, you'd get landfall well before 10pm if you extrapolated it.
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The movement on radar has been pretty straight the last few hours, right along the NHC track towards Sarasota.
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It seems like it's further north and slower than most 12z guidance.
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The severe is overperforming so not a bust.
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Hmon and HWRF still have wind trajectories that look like they are sucking water out of the bay rather than pushing it in, and from this storm size/shape it would have to track way north through Port Richey for TB to get the maximum surge.
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Sorry gotta binge watch another 12-18hrs of Goes-16 porn.
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GFS looks like it's over Bradenton 6z Thursday.
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Not a good day for tech tycoon billionaires to have their luxury superyatches out there.
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It matches Hurricane Dean pretty well in size and intensity.
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The Adt page says 903mb 155kt. Accurate for once.
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That's every global model showing landfall within about 10 miles. Amazing agreement, this didn't used to happen. Even 10 years back models would have a much larger spread 36 hrs out.
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Hurricane models actually did a good job forecasting an ERC and multiple intensity peaks. Dorian actually did a similar thing. Maybe not an ERC, but there was a pause in the intensification for almost a day.
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There is pretty low spread in the 12z tracks so far. GFS, Ukmet, Icon , Jma and even the cmc all track over Longboat Key from what I can tell.
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The cdo ring is still cooling FWIW. Maybe 5mb between passes is just noise for storms this deep.
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Raw ADT up to 7.8. It still has a ways to go to beat ETAs record of 8.4.
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The VDM says 899mb. I don't see a dropsonde yet.
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898.6 mb extrapolated
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Could be where it's at currently. My guess is it's leveled off there about an hour ago and has been steady every since.
