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Amped

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Everything posted by Amped

  1. Amped
    Unless it trends colder and we get 33 and rain.
  2. Amped
    Icon has been too far south with the rain/snow line all winter.
  3. Amped
    18z CMC is further south also at 84hrs. Probably would mean a better track than 12z
  4. Amped
    Maybe he meant HGR north?
  5. Amped
    GFS looks like a a monster hit northwest of the beltway.
  6. Amped
    Cmc is far from the best model but it's been leading the way with this system so far
  7. Amped
    Euro 240 Fantasy storm FTW
  8. Amped
    Still very poor agreement with the day 6 cutter. GFS amplifies amplifies the southern stream and phases it just east of the rockies, while the CMC and the FV3 show more of a shred. GFS did lag the energy back a little more this run so maybe that's a sign it's wrong.
  9. Amped
    So far there have been 2 storms that have been legit threats 9 days out this winter. This is the 3rd. Models are coming to similar solutions despite differences in the medium range. The high and the blocking are in a favorable spot, so the progressive flow is actually helping, cause it's bound to produce a wave during the favorable window. The only ways we lose is if it amplifies too much, or the GFS shred factory.
  10. Amped
    Far enough for 9.5 days out. Even the JMA extrapolated looks like it would have the system. Only the GFS crushes it with the PV enough to make it untrackable.
  11. Amped
    Euro, FV3 and CMC all have a low along the Carolina coast day 9-10. Very good agreement for models that looked different at shorter ranges. Not bad, plenty of cold, and 7 more days to get this thing up the coast.
  12. Amped
    ECMWF Has a disturbance entering california at 168hrs. It may try to show the FV3 storm this run. After the day 7 cutter of course.
  13. Amped
    Given the shape of a high, there's not going to be a low sneaking up from the central gulf coast states. Anything that forms will be an anafront skimming 95.
  14. Amped
    With the EPO the way it is, we'll probably get another event or at least a near miss.
  15. Amped
    More like 50, but most of it will still be gone.
  16. Amped
    Probably the only 570dm snowstorm you'll ever see.
  17. Amped
    Down to snizzle. That should about do it here unless something redevelops. Have about 4.5-5"
  18. Amped
    But DC never Jackpots
  19. Amped
    About 4.5" here in frederick, dryslot fast approching but still have SN+ for now
  20. Amped
    Heading for our area. A couple more hours of fun left
  21. Amped
    Dumping snow now. Heaviest so far this winter
  22. Amped
    Thats my concern, Euro is the driest, every other model has been trending drier.
  23. Amped
    Cut way back south of Winchester
  24. Amped
    It's a got an April 82 and March 60 look. Strong -EPO and a fairly zonal flow.
  25. Amped
    This event reminds me of December 2013. Have a warmfront shooting out bands of precip like they're photon torpedoes. If you get under a band, it's 6-10 easily, if not then you end up with very little, so it's going to be the luck of the draw here.
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