Amped
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Everything posted by Amped
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Euro day8-9 has a cutoff and rainstorm. Looks similar to April 2007..
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It can always trend a couple hundred miles further north, but we'll never get it to trend 30 miles south
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The models have been changing shortwave configurations quite a bit from run to run. Don't think anythings settled yet.
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Would be the ultimate April fools joke if the GFS 384 actually verified.
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Gfs is close day 7. Low scoots out to sea, But the Arctic high over the great lakes is impressive. Id rather just give up on this winter but I've had my eyes on that high pressure for a couple days now. Might be the best of the season actually.
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Big improvement from yesterday
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Models finally getting ridging into AK day 7-16. The SE ridge is still killing us.
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I just want to see how many more awesome fantasy runs we can pull out of this. The pattern is really working against this thing, which means a 99.9% chance it's not happening. But maybe we can do 20+ on the 00z or 06z before the GFS finally wakes up?
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Throw in a -NAO a 50/50 low, a -epo, a PNA ridge, and the EURO and I'd bite.
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S A work of art.
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1996 and 2016 had fold over ridges. They were really bad at preventing north trends.
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You guys might be better off without the first low. It would be similar to 2015 and 2005.
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It did go from 991 to 962 in 12 hrs.
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It clobbers Boston. Still all over the place at H5 over the past 3 runs. The Great Lakes low takes us out of the game however
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It hasn't showed snow in a long time
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GFS still hasn't figured out that out there's going to be a storm along the east coast Thurs-Fri. Every other piece of medium range guidance has.
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Just noticed the Ukmet. It does phase, but looks like an apps runner at 144. The NS digs a lot further west.
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The airmass isn't cold to start, but we could probably get enough cold on the back end of it bombs. And yes it purely escapes due to the timing of the southern stream. The northern stream isn't configured to shred it. Pivotal weather is showing a right entrance region over us at 300mb.
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Really confused on how that escapes out to sea given the 500mb look at 144. I was expecting a 980mb low over the Del Marva.
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Just hope for Fridays surprise snow squall gives us our 20 to 30.
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Fixed
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A couple 18z GEFS members look like they have something big at 240hrs
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I'll be happy with a 20" fantasy storm at 240hrs that doesn't verify at this point. Most winters we can at least get that.
