Amped
-
Posts
14,243 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by Amped
-
May 8-9 mid-spring rain, snow, cold, wind obs
Amped replied to CT Valley Snowman's topic in New England
Looks like some decent rates in Albany. -
A band is forming on Albany radar over Glens falls. Looks like its headed into Vermont south of Rutland.
-
Whiteout in the squalls south of Buffalo, hopefully they make it over the mountains. Will make for some nice pics.
-
It's happening.
-
That may be the best chance. Really starting to lose confidence in the weak CCB. Those squalls are nasty. Insane lapse rates, and plenty of dry air at 900mb. Perfect ingredients for the squalls making their own cold air. GFS showing 500 SBCAPE with temps in the 30s to low 40s.
-
It caved quite a bit at 500mb and with the surface low track and intensity.
-
It wouldn't be the NAM if it didn't have both the snowiest and least snowiest runs of any model withing 60hrs of the storm.
-
All models have trended further east and less amplified with the northern stream. That is what it causing the later phase. This was similar to 2010 when models miraculously brought the storm back . Not the likely scenario, but still worth watching 18z and 00z in case somehow the NS trends back west again.
-
Euro is 7MBs weaker with the low in the TN valley at 30hrs than the GFS. MCS coming out of OK causing feedback issues?
-
RGEM and ICON look weaker too. Last nights 18z EURO and 00z GFS might have been the best runs.
-
GFS trended northwest with the track and saucier with the jackpot. It's within a run or two of matching the euro and it's 700mb frontogenisis max matches well with where the Euro had the jackpot. NE PA to NW ME. If the deathband formed there, it would match the Euro.
-
It did a very good job tracing the snow swath it put out 12z. Maybe some higher amounts, but everything is in the same spot in general.
-
18z ICON is my favorite run by far because it turns the elongated frontal wave into a bowling ball the fastest and deforms the crap out of NH and the berks. Best chance for someone to get a foot.
-
Euro going to show a second system Sunday night- Monday.
-
ICON and RGEM also really amped up. I think this will be like every other thing I thought was worth watching this year, it will burn my eyes, and the GFS will prove itself a joke.
-
GFS has splits the vortex in Quebec and has a lobe over Maine. Thats what's keeping everything suppressed.
-
Traces up and down I95. Won't verify in the DC metro of course.
-
The Euro has been at least somewhat consistent.
-
CMC rides the low up the front much quicker, hence it's further north with the track. Looks like north of Albany to Portland gets some snow. Unusal for May, but a lot less insane than the GFS.
-
Models have been all over the place with this system the past 36hrs, so I'd think there's well above average uncertainty on the track and intensity of that low for 5 days out.
-
Looks like models abandon the idea of crushing the southern stream with the PV day 4-5. I thought I was losing my mind there for a while.. Now looks like a phase,. Rain and wind, with some pretty insane windchills for May.
-
18z GFS is close to something but it gets crushed by the PV. A very odd problem to have in May
-
That looks so similar to the March 2013 snowfall forecast map, I almost puked when I saw it.
-
Is there a record for most concave squall line?
-
Ripping on the webcam east of Bennington.
