Amped
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Everything posted by Amped
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Euro has great blocking, but PNA is a disaster. Hopefully the look changes.
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The updated NWS radar is terrible
Amped replied to Heisy's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Loads slower than wundermap 15 years ago. I can't tell if tell if I'm looking at base or a composite. COD remade their old site without using flash pretty easily. That's what nws should have done. Add dual pole products and increase the resolution also. Most of all, make sure it loads fast. -
Snow to sleet for us. It does produce a continuous swath of snow from the CA mountains all the way to RI.. Really slow mover. Seems to be one of those Atlantic VS pacific -PNA VS -NAO SE ridge vs confluence trilogies. Many more bizarre runs to come I'm sure.
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CMC is probably the closest thing to March 1888 that I've ever seen on a model run. Feb 2010 did not have a 1042 high. Would be a raging blizzard for NYC and western CT.
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Ugly coastal flooding setup too.
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Odd looking December 1992 like system. it backs into the coast.
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Yeah I'm not seeing seeing a perfect pattern there. Troff in CA and ridge over TX gives little room for a low coming out of the gulf.
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Can we buy a 50/50 low?
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If DCA only undermeasured a major snowstorm by .4" it would be a lifelong dream come true for most mid atlantic folks.
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Anyone remember this event? 30-40 totals weren't as widespread, but it looks like rates were comparable over S VT and NW mass.
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Also was pretty slow moving. I do think there are comparable setups from 30+ years ago that didn't produce these kinds of totals. Warmer ocean temps could be assisting it.
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LES rates and probably ratios too.
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I pitty the fool who took the under in Binghamton.
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March 2001 Feb 2010 March 2017 March 93 April 97 Those probably included some upslope , but so does this.
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Sleeting again here
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Looks like the CC line is accurate over the mountains.
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18z NAM came south with the low track, but the mixing line is further north and the Deathband almost runs across the PA/NY state line.. Believable considering there's a lot more precip near Pittsburgh then most models had.
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Huge flakes in Columbia. Tooo bad we probably only have another 20-30 minutes left.
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Euro has 8" in Albany, rgem has 30". They also have fun forecasts on the north side of this storm.
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At least we still have the RGEM 850mb wraparound mesobomb to track.
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Western shift is due to the following 3 things 1. The troff keeps trending, slower with higher heights ahead of it. 2. #1 is really bad when there is a high moving offshore. 3. The primary in the OV keeps trending stronger.
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Last second trends always make an accurate forecast practically impossible. Now it's up to mets to gamble and extrapolate the models even further NW cause the models are playing catch up and won't quite make it.
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Just go all the way to Hagerstown at that point. Pretty easy drive up 70, and easy to pick up 68 if you need to get even further west.
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In 2017 GFS' had the snow sleet line 50 miles too far SE and it underdid the warm layer by about 4C
