Amped

Starting to hint at a Norlun like feature, which the GFS has too. Wouldn't be surprised with the closed H5 and the strong primary. Going to be a long multipart, confusing storm, kind of like the January mess we had in DC last year.

Possibly, it may happen in phases though. Initial deepening when the front hits the coast and then a second burst of deepening when the ULL moves offshore. You can already see models pulling the center back to the west when the ULL captures it as well as a convective blob forming near the center.

Pressure falls are pretty lame after the coastal forms. 997mb at 84hrs. 989mb at 108hrs.

GFS, CMC UKMET and ICON in pretty good agreement for 4-5 days out. Awaiting the final word of the Euro. GFS is probably over-deepening the low in the plains since it is 5-10mb deeper than other models.

CMC has a stronger high north of the lakes than any other model. Looks like the GFS from a few days ago.

Primary hangs on longer. Weaker baroclinic zone behind the storm. Accumulating snow will be further north.

I lost interest once it got rid of the high behind the storm. Now it's just a big hot mess.

Pretty good agreement between the GFS CMC and Icon at 144hrs

Im impressed that a monster bowling ball actually loses latitude between the plains and the east coast. Think of what could have been if it started weaker and further south.

Impressive to get a 980MB low over Nebraska to reform off of Atlantic City like that and bring snow to the NW burbs of NYC and PHL Don't think I've ever seen anything similar happen

Lol 18z GFS. Blizzard for Philly at 198hrs. Somehow it MillerBs that strong low over the Midwest. Kind of a December 2003 setup. 960mb low over Marthas Vinyard at 210.

Looks like a lot of crapvection caused by the mountains ahead of the line. Maybe it improves once it gets east and merges.

GFS keeps insisting on an impressive storm in the Caribbean next week. Most other models are not too bullish and show a minimal TS at best. This system originates from South America, which is kind of unusual and one of the reasons I'm not sold on the idea. A lot of heat potential in the western Carib, if something can stall over water long enough its an easy CAT 5 like Wilma or Mitch. There hasn't been a major in the western Carib in a long time. Mathew didn't really make it past the eastern tip of Cuba.

Jerry eats Karen on the Icon. GFS is thinking about it too. Doesn't look good for Karen surviving if Jerry doesn't get out of the way.

Parrs ridge. Most of Carol county.

Imagine if there was a bulls ass that could talk, and screamed "Hey everyone look at me" every 2 minutes. You think people would catch on and stop falling for it after 70+ years but apparently sometimes they don't.

I hope a hurricane permanently stalls off the coast so we can hallucinate on which way it's moving 365 days a year.

Somebody smash the HMON and the HWRF now. Their track outputs are not supposed to be taken seriously.

TV Mets are going to have to start calling "the eye" of the Dorian "The Pupil" so they don't confuse the public.

Freeport, spends 24hrs in the eye on the Euro. Plenty of buildings to destroy there, I don't know how well built they are, but they are going to need to hold up to CAT 4/5

As long as the 3km NAM agrees

After the performance over the past 24hrs, I think every model and every ensemble member should should be completely tossed.

August will be rockin

I can tell cause it's going to melt away and put him underwater, just like all of his other investments.

So who gets flooded tomorrow, Frederick, or Ellicott City?