Amped
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Everything posted by Amped
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Thats a pretty good impression of the February 22 1987 storm on the GFS
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Kind of an odd wind trajectory. We had a storm like this in December 2013. It was rain for a lot of the metro area although the northwestern folks got snow.
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Well most people use the HRRR. I'm not sure what advantage the RAP offers.
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I'm still on the fence about whether or not the 12z Euro was a hiccup. 18z will be telling.
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Yes and outdated
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Trying to figure out how this Boston deathband popped up out of nowhere the last 2 runs. There has been a gradual trend to close the 700mb low off further south near Atlantic City instead of NYC. Doesn't quite explain why it suddenly gave March 1997 death band suddenly appeared.
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Every model is imagining it a dryslot in the exact same area.
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Its a nasty dryslot.
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Looks like every model agrees there's going to be a band of heavy snow in NNJ or somewhere near the NY/NJ border.
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Reminder. Tolland is in the dryslot of the upcoming storm. on every model.
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NAM up to it's usual crazy antics. Keeps the ULL slower in the OV. Then it elongates and negative tilts it further west than other models. We'll see if any other models in the 00z suite follow. Usually the answer is no.
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You could almost use the default snow map for CT that consists of a bunch of lines running SW to NE across the state. Fill in numbers as needed.
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Time to move on to the day 11 triple phaser.
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RGEM runs out to 72hrs? Gotta watch that cold pool aloft with the ULL. Some sort of a band will form on the NE edge of it. NYCs best shot at getting accumulating snow out of this.
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I lived there growing up. It snows hard for an hour, then changes over. You get a lot of teases in that area.
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1.3" liquid in 3 hrs its a physics problem too.
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Most of it comes from the front end thump.
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Anyone remember the Xmas 2002 storm? It was supposed to be mostly rain with more snow in NW areas. Started off that way, but changed over to snow and a band stalled over NYC, Long Island and CT, Ended up with 6-10 in those areas. That evolution reminds me of what the CMC is showing.
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That's a big difference compared to 00z yesterday.
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GFS does that too. It's like a meso it pins to the coast of long island, then cape cod.
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More precip in the cold sector again. Low level jet cranking a bit more on this run but still could be better. GFS finally realizing this is a legit snowstorm and it might not be done yet.
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Too early, it will come back south. The real north trend starts 36hrs out right after news stations issue numbers, so the areas initially forcasted to get 10-15, end up with 90 percent rain.
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Gfs finally has a large solid area of heavy snow. In past runs, it looked like the jackpot was 30hrs or drizzle with some flakes mixed in. Even if it doesn't hit NYC, it's what you would expect from this type of storm.
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Starting to hint at a Norlun like feature, which the GFS has too. Wouldn't be surprised with the closed H5 and the strong primary. Going to be a long multipart, confusing storm, kind of like the January mess we had in DC last year.
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Possibly, it may happen in phases though. Initial deepening when the front hits the coast and then a second burst of deepening when the ULL moves offshore. You can already see models pulling the center back to the west when the ULL captures it as well as a convective blob forming near the center.
