Amped
-
Posts
14,168 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by Amped
-
When they say "get to higher ground" in Louisiana the mean "move to another state".
-
Guess which model had an elongated blob with 20 different centers moving around like drunken flies?
-
Never seen a TC with a 500mb vorticity field like this.
-
Reminder that no model shown 2 hurricanes coming ashore. It's one or the other or none.
-
4mb drop from the last pass.
-
The center did look pretty tight on visible earlier today. Some convection around the center now. Hurricane models are showing a 25-30mb pressure drop before it hits the Yucatan. I take these models more seriously in the near term with storms over warm water in low shear, with a small core. Ernesto, Micheal and Harvey all experienced these kind of deepening rates when they were near the Yucatan. Watch closely the next few hours if the burst over the center continues to grow, it could be an impressive 6-18hr RI event.
-
All the stronger solutions track further northeast. Although recon found the center pretty far south, it is broad and weak enough that it can still reform.
-
It has a very impressive dual outflow channel for the next 48hrs before it makes landfall.
-
Still too early. These circulations always close off and start deepening rapidly 6 hrs before landfall.
-
Unusually good structure for a landfalling spout.
-
Euro is ugly CMC UKMET NAVGEM ICON all like the idea of a Bahamas/FL storm and a west central gulf storm day 6-7, so I'm not totally buying the Euro. I'd actually be a little surprised if the favorable conditions yielded nothing.
-
Upgraded to Hurricane. RAW ADT is 6.0 with 1.7T/6hr constraint set. They only set that limit when a storm is about to nuke.
-
I think Patricia was close, but I don't recall what the exact percentages were.
-
Not too shaby
-
97L declared. GFS now shows something heading into the NE Yucatan late week. How strong it gets will depend on how quickly it gets going and how well it avoids land.
-
GEPS FTW
-
Finally some sub 1000mb lows in the basin on the CMC at hr 180.
-
Models have been going nuts with 95E which is not supposed to develop for another 30 hrs. If it can stay away from the Mexican coast, there is a good chance this system makes cat 5 given the environment it's in.
-
I am wondering how Carolina shelf waters are so warm after Isaias. Maybe that's an error or they changed the calculation? There's TCHP along the coast in a lot of other places where there wasn't much before 2020
-
Seems Philly is getting most of the rain this year.
-
Am I seeing 64 for a low Monday night? We should through a party the first night it drops below 65.
-
There some opportunity for a storm in the SE Caribbean next week if something can get going south of the shear and north of the south american coast. Felix was able to do this in a similar pattern but there isn't much room.
-
I'm never impressed with lots of low quality struggling Tropical Storms. I don't see anything on models in the next 15 days that looks exciting. Here are some examples of 60 day stretches in the Atlantic that produced at least 4 major hurricanes. I will consider the upcoming hyped "Active Period" in the Atlantic a bust if it can't do it. 7 of the past 25 years have. AUG-SEPT 1995 4 Major hurricanes AUG-SEPT 1996 4 Major hurricanes AUG-SEPT 1999 4 Major Hurricanes AUG-SEPT 2004 6 Major Hurricanes SEPT-OCT 2005 4 Major Hurricanes AUG-SEPT 2010 5 Major Hurricanes AUG-SEPT 2017 5 Major Hurricanes
-
HRDPS had a line through Chicago just about every run.
-
Possibly the 49mph gust that took Danbury off the grid for the past week.
