Amped
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Everything posted by Amped
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Why the day 10 storm might actually form: Large size storms more likely too be picked up 10 days in advance. This thing is huge. It's been on multiple GFS runs Has ensembles support 12z CMC also showing something although it's a strung out mess. Has a large time window of favorable conditions .This makes it more likely something will form maybe late but not never. Why it might not form: The GFS sometime erroneously shows TCs forming in the western Caribbean in the long range. The Euro and EPS are not showing it.
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The Euro and CMC show much stronger blocking day 10 over Greenland than the GFS. Reminds me a little another setup where a storm came out of the central Caribbean and ran into a strong blocking pattern. I wont name the storm, but the Euro nailed it. I'm surprised DT hasn't issued a "Ruh Oh Shaggy" yet.
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00z GEPS and 12z GEFS show something also. 19th-23rd timeframe.
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Anyone have S shaped storm on their bingo card?
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Eye is now showing up on radar http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/RadarArchive/KBRO/loop.html
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That is not a very hot look at landfall. Irene 2.0
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The next band in line to cause a convective burst looks even juicier, so hopefully nothing disrupts it.
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Southern part of the core looks like it's tightened up. Maybe this next attempt at an eye will have better luck.
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Chasing its tail
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In a good spot to take advantage of the fact the gulf is shaped like a giant comma.
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Pressure has risen from 974mb -976mb in the last 2 hrs. Don't know what's going on, but it's not strengthening.
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More of an eye too.
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Actually that shows plenty of precip surrounding the center. Also there's already a convective burst wrapping around. So it is probably about to take off, with a much larger eye.
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My favorite part of being in the Greek alphabet was that nobody refers to the storm as "HE" or 'SHE". Of course now someone did anyway.
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Next 6 hours is key to see what it does. If a feeder band can form on the western Yucatan coast and then wrap around the north side of the storm there's a good chance it RIs again. If it keeps the same line through the center look, it probably stays a Cat1/2.
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No eye will form with that linear band cutting the storm in half. GFS eventually wraps it around the storm but not until after landfall as it's moving back into the gulf. You can see the evolution in the 500mb rh fields. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500rh&rh=2020100618&fh=12&r=caribbean&dpdt=&mc=
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You can see very little precip on the north side of this despite the huge monster band to the south.
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Massive convective blob well southeast of the center. Thats gonna mess things up.
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There's a noticeable fujiwara between Delta and Gamma on the visible the last couple hours.
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Getting out of range but radar showing only 1 eyewall now. Even though it looks ragged, the next convective burst have an easier time clearing it out.
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Looks like concentric eyewalls on sat and radar even though there's no sign of it on recon. Both eyes are pretty small so recon might have missed a second wind max. That would explain why the pressure isn't tumbling like wilma and the eye is having trouble clearing out.
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Going down at about 3 mb/ hr. This may come close to Felix's TD to Cat 5 record.
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Okay I'll start. The windspeeds are gong to have a pretty big Delta Going through the eyewall was like going through a Delta function.
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The pressure only fell 12 mb in about the last 8 hrs. Although it may qualify as RI it is now likely undergoing RI+. The next 12 hrs will put the last 12hrs to shame.
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HMON and HWRF in perfect agreement with a 929mb low over Cancun. HMON is a few hours faster.
