Amped
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Everything posted by Amped
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Depends what you consider western Sandy and Mathew made it to eastern Cuba Otto November 2016 hit Panama Rina 2011 was near the Yucatan. and in October.
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There is a trend, slowly but surely.
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Beta not going to be a winddstorm. Gotta watch that feeder band over LA. It's forecast to stall for 60 hrs. It might be able to produce a little more than the 6-10" of rain the GFS is showing.
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ECMWF also came way northeast with it's track. Looks like landfall near Port O'connor. Edit. So much for stalling along the coast stalls over San Antonio this run.
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CMC with an even wackier solution than 12z. Stalls near TX then moves Southeast and stalls near the Yucatan, the starts moving back NW again.
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I'll consider it part of the basin when a storm comes out of there and makes landfall in Florida. It's connected to the Atlantic, but so it the Pacific.
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CMC shows even more of a 2020 solution. Stalls 20 Miles off the TX coast for 3 days, then hits Florida.
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Here's a loop of the Euro not nailing Sally. It just waited to long to make it's move.
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Did Nola even get a drop of rain?
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Everyone's gonna miss Teddy strengthening to a high end CAT 4 by late tomorrow.
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ECMWF and CMC organize something in the western gulf but at different times.
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GFS just north of Barbados this run. Think it goes right into Dominica but it's hard to tell. Also it's showing a Mathew like blob to the east of the storm for those interested in convective blobs. This time it eventually develops into another Tropical Storm.
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12z euro was the most disappointing run of the seasons it showed 4 tcs all duds and all fish storms. Lets watch sheared messes dance around the central Atlantic, before inevitably recurving towards Europe. Sounds like lots of fun.
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Usually a sign of something bad when you see a storm in that in that wind shear pattern this time of year. Looks similar to Maria and Irma. Probably would be way stronger than the 956mb pressure shown if a similar setup verified. 00z GFS and CMC are almost in the same spot with this at hr 210.
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No US landfalls through day 10.
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Seems like Denver usually got snow in September back in the 90s. 9/8 is a little early. I think the record earliest is 9/2. -
A couple GEFS Para members have something developing near NW Cuba and moving into west FL next week. One has a 957mb low moving into Tampa. There is some pretty low shear in the area if an initial disturbance can get going. That area is the only threat to the US within the next 7-10 days, anything else is further away.
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Really not seeing anything I'm that impressed with. Take away storms above 1000mb and we really don't have that many storms this season and none in upcoming model forecasts.
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He is horrible during hurricanes. He Tries to make every gust of wind an EF5 tornado and it just keeps going on for hours. He'll repeat something like "There's another 150,000 mph wind gust, man eating anacondas are flying off the side of the building, godzilla fire breath just vaporized another car windshield" about 1000 times over the course of the night.
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Starting in the next 24 hrs, Models are showing a big plume of moisture coming north from the Amazon (French Guina, Guyana, Suriname ) into the Lesser Antilles and Caribbean. This should give the AEWs moving through the area a boost during the next 7 days while it lasts.
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GFS closes off a 700mb and 850mb low. For some reason it doesn't develop until the Yucatan. Any shear is out of the northeast. ICON CMC and UKMET are all more bullish on this system than the GFS and Euro. I think there's a chance every model is too conservative on this wave. It could easily be a major hurricane by the central Caribbean given the conditions.
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Significant Severe Weather Event Possible Thursday, August 27, 2020
Amped replied to weatherwiz's topic in New England
Westport got hit pretty bad again. Had quite a bit of wind and hail. -
CMC trying to get something going east of the lesser Antilles also day 2. It's not holding together very well, but it's in an area of low shear and high pwat, so I see no obvious reason for it to fall apart.
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And definitely Steve Irwin. they both get the same adrenaline rush from danger.
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We all know it takes at least 6 months to determine whether it was a Cat 4 or Cat 5 at landfall. Stop speculating
