Amped
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Everything posted by Amped
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Going down at about 3 mb/ hr. This may come close to Felix's TD to Cat 5 record.
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Okay I'll start. The windspeeds are gong to have a pretty big Delta Going through the eyewall was like going through a Delta function.
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The pressure only fell 12 mb in about the last 8 hrs. Although it may qualify as RI it is now likely undergoing RI+. The next 12 hrs will put the last 12hrs to shame.
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HMON and HWRF in perfect agreement with a 929mb low over Cancun. HMON is a few hours faster.
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Not as big as Mathew, but that's an impressive1008mb 5mph electrified blob to the south of delta.
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That's Grand Cayman, and it is showing a closed ring now.
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The core of Delta is too small for most models to resolve and simulate properly. Global Models underestimated Wilma and Felix for the same reason. They've gotten better, but resolving something the size of delta requires a lot of extra resolution and processing power. Probably best left to the nested hurricane models, but those are far from perfect either.
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A massive convective burst in the eastern eyewall is rapidly expanding. It looks like it's going to dwarf the last few. This might be the breaking point.
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978mb this pass. 65kt sfmr, but it's flagged. Edit: Extrap was lower but drop was 984mb again.
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This could be a Cozumel/Cancun strike, yes. And a powerful one at that. I am aggressive on initial maximum intensity by the Yucatán Channel regardless if it strikes the NE Yucatán or skirts through. Hard to get in the center of a pinhole eye, but Cancun is in a pretty bad spot.
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Gotta consider the possibility of it hitting the Yucatan now since it's south of the forecast track
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986mb extrapolated 55kt sfmr The center is also at 16.1 N which is south of where most models had it.
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Weakens from 968mb to 994mb before it hits.
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Convecction is rapidly expanding to the NW of a storm. There is almost a line where it starts. I remember several other storms showing this type of signature before RI.
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GFS 978mb at 48hrs this run. Also further south giving it more time to bomb. Edit Bottoms out at 966hrs. Core organized at around 30hrs 992mb probably Cat1. Avoids land and doesn't start to hit the cooler waters in the gulf until around 66hrs. That would give it 36hrs. Only thing keeping the environment from being perfect is Gamma,. Hard to tell if Gamma decides to bail out or hang in there, it's been inconsistent from run to run.
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The simulated IR we've been waiting for all season.
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GFS gets down to 978mb in the central gulf, but the northern gulf shear wall kicks in full force this run. Looks like 40-50 knots as it's making landfall in SE LA. Going to get shredded. Actually hoping for a similar scenario. Just make it a Cat5 in the southern gulf then weaken it back to a TS before landfall.
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Over the warmest waters of the basin for the next 60 hrs. It would easily make cat 5 if it was already a 995mb TS. Too bad it's a 1007mb swirl thats going to need another 24-36hrs to get it's act together.
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GFS and CMC both make landfall in S MS. However they differ on timing, intensity and whether it's Delta or Gamma making landfall. One of the more interesting model wars I've seen.
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Gamma did not watch out for Delta this GFS run.
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Models combining Gamma and 92L into the ultimate slopgyre
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THe GFS and GEFS shifted closer to Florida with the Track. Most of the FL impact members are 980-1005mb which would be a TS or Cat1 Also, there is some pretty strong cape to the east of this disturbance. Likely there's going to be some impressive convective blobs which will complicate the forecast.
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GFS Para is the new 3km NAM, it's done this all season.
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Would not give up on it this yet. The main issues preventing it from taking off are land interaction and competing centers. On the plus side there's low shear and a potential stall over the warmest waters in the basin. Too soon to tell 4 days out. Edit: It was mostly cynical troll Ldub23 writing it off.
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GFS has a 971mb Cat2 making landfall just north of BE in MX. Still an ongoing trend north with the track every run. I think it may eventually end up taking a Charlie like track across Cuba into SW FL.
