Amped
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Everything posted by Amped
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It did go from 991 to 962 in 12 hrs.
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It clobbers Boston. Still all over the place at H5 over the past 3 runs. The Great Lakes low takes us out of the game however
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It hasn't showed snow in a long time
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GFS still hasn't figured out that out there's going to be a storm along the east coast Thurs-Fri. Every other piece of medium range guidance has.
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Just noticed the Ukmet. It does phase, but looks like an apps runner at 144. The NS digs a lot further west.
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The airmass isn't cold to start, but we could probably get enough cold on the back end of it bombs. And yes it purely escapes due to the timing of the southern stream. The northern stream isn't configured to shred it. Pivotal weather is showing a right entrance region over us at 300mb.
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Really confused on how that escapes out to sea given the 500mb look at 144. I was expecting a 980mb low over the Del Marva.
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Just hope for Fridays surprise snow squall gives us our 20 to 30.
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Fixed
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A couple 18z GEFS members look like they have something big at 240hrs
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I'll be happy with a 20" fantasy storm at 240hrs that doesn't verify at this point. Most winters we can at least get that.
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Nice to see every model handling that differently. UKMET has It has support from a few EPS members.
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CMC ninjas a cutoff low and coastal, almost gets us with some light snow. Decent hit for SE VA and NC.
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GFS really confused about what it wants to do with the lead shortwave in the day 8 system. Ends up stalling over Iowa for 36hrs. We get some flurries
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Seems to be the trend this year Snow doesn't want to come anywhere near the MA. We can't even get a close call this year.
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GFS is not damping out the day 5 shortwave as much this run. Maybe closer to a storm.
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Blocking looks transient. That means the cold shot will be also. Doesn't even look like much of it gets into the NAO or AO domain.
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My guess is that's an error and the GFS/CMC are correct. Could be a decent tornado outbreak along the gulf coast if it does verify.
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We get screwed with only .005
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That's what 1888 must have looked like just 100 miles further south.
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There's a vortex of no parked over Alaska and another vortex of no parked over Greenland. As if that weren't enough, there is a ridge axis of no over the Gulf of Mexico. We are not squeezing a yes out of this pattern.
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We will all get killed by flying pigs twice before we catch a break in that pattern.
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Has a closed 500 mb low right in the middle of a ridge.
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It's a nice setup, if the troff in southern Quebec can stay out of the way. Can very easily produce a strong burst of lift and overperform given the position of the high.
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Mid January/Mid February Medium/Long Range Discussion
Amped replied to WinterWxLuvr's topic in Mid Atlantic
Nothing worse than a central gomex ridge. GFS long range somehow ninjas a KU storm for New England in fantasy range, but generally a hopeless pattern for us.
