Amped
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This looks similar in intensity the last 3 Hurricanes to hit SE LA. Gustav, Isaac and Nate. It was a raw T 7.4 at one point last night. I think the window to deepen has just about ended. It will probably hold this intensity +-5mb up to landfall.
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Middle of the night weather check. Raw T up to 7.0 This could be the best 6 hr RI of the season.
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Recon only found a 991mb pressure. A little baffled too seeing as it appears to be forming an eyewall quickly.
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The eye is wrapping up fairly quickly. Probably only has 8hrs left over the warm ssts. Shear kicks in in about 21hrs. 100 miles south of the LA coast.
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HWRF doing a good job teasing.
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Not too bad, but not amazing either
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Next recon on it's way. Really wish MX Belize had working radars cause it's hard to tell how far convection is wrapping around the center.
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It's the ULL forming a new system and Zeta getting ripped apart. CMC and even the Ukmet show Zeta being ripped apart over the apps. I think the Euro holds onto Zeta too long. It's not going to cross the apps and still be a 988mb low.
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Euro looks strange between 90 and 96 hrs. The low is racing NE and then suddenly takes a jog back to the SW and weakens. I can see it slowing down or taking a turn to the SE, but the SW movement doesn't make sense in a fast flow.
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988 drop. T-9hrs from landfall. HWRF has a 979mb Cat1 which seams reasonable.
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CMC starting to kick off something in the Carribean Saturday. GFS takes almost another 72hrs to get it going.
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The outflow and core look impressive for a storm at this latitude.
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GFS has a similar outer band forming, but it isn't supposed to happen for another 30 hrs.
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Epsilon weakened a lot last night, but has made a very quick comeback the last 3 hrs. Eye is back out and T numbers are back up to 4.6. The west side of the storm looks healthy again.
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Euro is similar. It backs into Iceland as a 940mb low in the next few frames.
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2020 can be added to the list now, Aug-26th - Oct21st Laura, Teddy, Delta , Epsilon. A very good season, but the alphabet record was padded with namewaster storms.
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NHC issues a special 2pm advisory 958mb 110mph Florence November 1994 is the closes analog. It didn't deepen as fast but reached a similar intensity and took a similar track. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Florence_(1994)
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Going to need some post season reanalysis on this. It was probably at least 10mb deeper than analyzed at 18z yesterday. However ADT numbers have not change much since 2am. Most of the Deepening probably occurred yesterday
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So looks like all models the NHC and the ADT were way under on the intensity. Almost a Cat 3
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992mb 55kt? It's got a warm core with a cold core wrapped around it and an eye. I'd have guessed it's somewhere near 980mb and 75kt.
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As for what prevented the Caribbean storm from forming, Looks like it was the stupid 500mb low over Florida. It appears at around the same time the GFS lost the storm.
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Yeah it's a little perplexing. GFS was also too weak with Episilon, and had trouble handling the phase. It was it splitting it into 2 lows for a while.
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The GFS blew chunks with both storms
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Looks a lot like the output from the Euro 2 weeks ago. Just a giant elongated wind field. Euro keeps showing a 2nd system trying to form in the western gulf. Although no other model is showing second low pressure in the GOM, all of them have lower pressures there than the GFS.
