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Amped

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Everything posted by Amped

  1. Amped
    UKMET actually has the jackpot SW of us. Right where we want to see it 4 days out.
  2. Amped
    Both the GFS and CMC have incredible CCBS. Watch carefully and you can see the coastal drop back to the southwest along the NJ/DE coasts. I don't know if that will actually verify.
  3. Amped
    DC does pretty bad with Miller Bs where the primary gets north of the Ohio River. It's going to be tough to keep this one south.
  4. Amped
    And the scary part is I think the QPF it's showing over PA is too light given the firehose. Should be a massive area of 30+ from Garret county to Binghamton .
  5. Amped
    Insane run for the PA Turnpike, and most of PA for that matter.
  6. Amped
    Not liking the further east primary. I'd rather the primary stay further way from us.
  7. Amped
    Para is probably having convective issues and taking the low too far east.
  8. Amped
    There's what I thought the 00z run was going to do. 00z was actually a work of art sneaking it OTS with a + SLP anomaly along the entire east coast.
  9. Amped
    More ridging between the storm and the 50/50 low this run. Looks good so far.
  10. Amped
    Don't know where the R/S line is, but the area of 10+ and 20+ on that run is going to be huge. Crushes all of NE and eastern 3rd of PA/NY after us.
  11. Amped
    Okay so the Euro was a southern outlier and has not much support from ensembles? I thought this Euro run was wonky anyway and should have phased. The HP is pretty darn far east and extends down the coast. It's not easy for something to slip OTS in this pattern. GFS and CMC both had more reasonable looking outcomes.
  12. Amped
    I'm fine with this run. It's an OTS track that could be easily avoided by slower troff with higher heights ahead of it. A shift that almost always happens inside 72hrs.
  13. Amped
    Well some of the precip hooked back into NE. It didn't pull the coastal back as much as I thought it would though.
  14. Amped
    And NS has the capture at 162. Hooking back into NJ and NE
  15. Amped
    . Precip is lightening up at 144 but the NS finally trying to dive in for a save
  16. Amped
    NS not digging this run, but the western ridge is more amped up.
  17. Amped
    CMC going for the December 2003 style evolution. it's a Miller B, but the coastal does a huge pivot and clobbers ENY and NE.
  18. Amped
    We wake up two mornings in a row with the same weather. Think that's fitting for a groundhog day blizzard.
  19. Amped
    As we know it never comes NE. Just ask the people from NH that got 3ft from the December storm.
  20. Amped
    Yeah except more stalled.
  21. Amped
    Low moves maybe 5 miles between 144 and 150hrs. Panels look almost identical Edit: still stalled near Norfolk at 156.
  22. Amped
    The primary weakens much faster this run.
  23. Amped
    A lot more snow in NC this run
  24. Amped
    UKMET is good, but ICON is the top seed for 12z so far. Gotta give it some bonus points too for pulling the surface low back down from Long Island to Cape May.
  25. Amped
    Nice that it's trended south every run for the last 48hrs. Hopefully a good sign, but as usual, all options on the table.
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