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Amped

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Everything posted by Amped

  1. Amped
    The 1pm upgrade was enough for a record.
  2. Amped
    The projected landfall point is close to Puerto Cabezas, The one population center along the Nicaragua coast.
  3. Amped
    Someone finally made the cheesy ETA pun
  4. Amped
    Recons planes have had a lot of mileage put on them this year. I'm not surprised that they are having issues.
  5. Amped
    The eye shape looks great, and stable. It could use some more warming though, which will probably happen in the next few hours. I already like this better than delta.
  6. Amped
    Looks like the storm we've been waiting for. Has a Pinhole eye thats rapidly warming. Probably deepening 3mb/hr. This is a good time to move the storm floater over to some random clouds over the mid atlantic.
  7. Amped
    IF the HWRF is correct, it's already a cat1 below 980mb Banding on the west side looks a lot better than a few hours ago, and there's a large convective burst over the core.
  8. Amped
    Most bullish HWRF run I've seen this year. It's 981mb at hr6 so that's averaging 2mb/hr pressure falls overnight and tomorrow morning.
  9. Amped
    36hrs is plenty of time to make CAT 2. Has a decent shot at CAT3 also now that it looks like the high end scenarios are verifying.
  10. Amped
    It varies depending on the storm, and the altitude, and the temperature profile. I would expect it to be higher because it's hard for the drop to hit the minimum pressure. It's just a single point. The plane flies a line giving it more sample coverage
  11. Amped
    Drop was 993mb extrap 992mb. What more do you want?
  12. Amped
    Pretty small core appears to be developing. This would increase the odds of an HWRF RI scenario, although I doubt it gets sub 950mb..
  13. Amped
    I thought the GFS was Bizzare last night. But now the 18z run highlights include. 16mb pressure drop while over Cuba 922mb snowicane in the Gulf of Maine.
  14. Amped
    Too bad it's a lock
  15. Amped
    That storm surge in Virac is going to be extremely sudden when the get in the back eyewall.
  16. Amped
    In these conditions, there's literally a better chance of it being taken out by a flying pig then staying online
  17. Amped
    Looks like Virac will get in the Eye.
  18. Amped
    GFS with one of it's most 2020 runs ever. Every other model allows the NErly flow @ 500mb to capture it and pull it SW across central America. GFS showed that a few runs ago but now changed it's mind. I think it's a fugiwara effect with a convective blob to the north that's preventing it from being pulled SW but I'm open to other suggestions. Probably nothing like this verifies.
  19. Amped
    HMON deepens from 999mb at 48hrs to 943mb at 93hrs. Solid Cat3-4 at landfall over an area that's mostly jungle.
  20. Amped
    ECMWF, CMC GFS are in good agreement on a TS south of Jamaica at 72hrs. It drifts southwest into central America on all models but takes varying amounts of time. It doesn't have time to deepen into a major Hurricane on any model however.
  21. Amped
    Didn't even make headlines with all the election stuff. There's a decent amount of damage.
  22. Amped
    The IR appearance is finally starting to degrade. Amazing because radar has been showing only a few whisker bands in the SW half of the storm since landfall
  23. Amped
    It also got onshore fast and didn't build up hours of suspense. I like watching storm chases that just cut to the chase.
  24. Amped
    Finally an actual Cat 2 observation for a Cat2 Hurricane.
  25. Amped
    Maybe it strengthens a little. If the pressure only fell 12mb in the last 12 hrs,, it's not going to make CAT3 extrapolating that rate over the next 6 hrs.
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