Amped
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Everything posted by Amped
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97L declared. GFS now shows something heading into the NE Yucatan late week. How strong it gets will depend on how quickly it gets going and how well it avoids land.
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GEPS FTW
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Finally some sub 1000mb lows in the basin on the CMC at hr 180.
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Models have been going nuts with 95E which is not supposed to develop for another 30 hrs. If it can stay away from the Mexican coast, there is a good chance this system makes cat 5 given the environment it's in.
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I am wondering how Carolina shelf waters are so warm after Isaias. Maybe that's an error or they changed the calculation? There's TCHP along the coast in a lot of other places where there wasn't much before 2020
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Seems Philly is getting most of the rain this year.
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Am I seeing 64 for a low Monday night? We should through a party the first night it drops below 65.
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There some opportunity for a storm in the SE Caribbean next week if something can get going south of the shear and north of the south american coast. Felix was able to do this in a similar pattern but there isn't much room.
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I'm never impressed with lots of low quality struggling Tropical Storms. I don't see anything on models in the next 15 days that looks exciting. Here are some examples of 60 day stretches in the Atlantic that produced at least 4 major hurricanes. I will consider the upcoming hyped "Active Period" in the Atlantic a bust if it can't do it. 7 of the past 25 years have. AUG-SEPT 1995 4 Major hurricanes AUG-SEPT 1996 4 Major hurricanes AUG-SEPT 1999 4 Major Hurricanes AUG-SEPT 2004 6 Major Hurricanes SEPT-OCT 2005 4 Major Hurricanes AUG-SEPT 2010 5 Major Hurricanes AUG-SEPT 2017 5 Major Hurricanes
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HRDPS had a line through Chicago just about every run.
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Possibly the 49mph gust that took Danbury off the grid for the past week.
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Looks like the lines did merge, this was keeping the mesovotex from lifting north. Not good for Chicago,
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They put out a PDS watch. Don't see how the high risk designation does much to improve the the threat communication.
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Another MCS is forming to the north of the main one. There maybe a merger in N central IL.
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50yd path length, That's about the shortest I've ever seen. At the speed it was moving, it died within 5 seconds of coming ashore. That house got really unlucky.
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The 40 days between Aug 20- Oct1 appears to be the main stretch in hurricane season. Almost every active season has had above average ACE in that stretch. Really can't say much about the season by what happens before then.
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Too much. CT Trees are taller and it would be a lot harder to install those because of all the rocks and steep hills. But probably way cheaper and easier than burying them.
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Fairmount, West Virginia has 1 lane 2 way dirt roads with weeds overgrown with 10 foot jungle weeds so you can't see around corners. Also they connect on google maps but end in the driveway of a house that been there at least 30 years in real life.
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Westport on the other hand, usually narrowly avoids things. Not in 2020.
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Parents in Westport are without power and had a tree hit the porch. Looks pretty bad there, 94% without power, and trees blocking most roads . Local representative saying it's the hardest hit in the state. Also, there is possible tornado damage in the spot where the warned cell came ashore. https://www.ctpost.com/local/article/More-than-94-of-Westport-without-power-15459239.php
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Always wonder what kind of damage Hazel did in NY, NJ and CT. There was a 100mph + gust at battery park. I can't find any descriptions of the damage without digging up archived local newspapers from the time.
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I was in Pittsburgh for Hurricane Ike. Similar winds without a drop of rain. -
And here's the slow motion. You can see the blast wave creating debris and sends it flying outward. Then the rising air plume starts sucking debris back inward..
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Seeing reports that both Sodium and Ammonium nitrate were stored there. Sodium nitrate isn't explosive on it's own and would not have reacted with another chemical fast enough to cause something that big. Ammonium nitrate is the more likely suspect. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ammonium_nitrate_disasters
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It's coming for LI and SW CT. Just starting to pivot back.
