Amped
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Everything posted by Amped
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Active mid December with multiple event potential
Amped replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
PD 1 storm was a bomb. The ULL held together. I don't think it is a good analog PDII and the blizzard of 1983 are probably better analogs for SNE. High placement was nearly identical in 1983 PDII wad a similar troff lifting out and weak coastal, High placement was similar but a lot stronger. Also had a deep tropical connection -
GFS shows a rain snow line with almost no sleet in the transition zone. This almost never happens in a CAD setup.
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That is a sharp cutoff.
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You can see why the euro trended south of 00z if you look at the jet streak under the troff. It's stronger and further SE this run.
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Ouch
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GFS will probably lose. It's just flattening out the wave too fast. There is not a 2/5/10 confluence zone there to crush it.
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GFS is out on a limb having heaviest snowfall over us. Every other model now shows it NE PA to BOS. I'm taking a page from DTs playbook and tossing the GFS.
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Closed 700mb low over Atlantic city, so That probably Implies NYC will get crushed and could be the jackpot of the whole event.. Sharp cutoff north of there though.
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Big wiff north of NYC almost like FEB 2010, but cutoff is a bit further north.
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More progressive troff FTW. I think It's the Pacjet behind the storm that causes this since it didn't start out more progressive.
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There has been a trend to slow the troff down like most big systems ever since I can remember. Hopefully this is a hiccup. 3 more runs on this trend and the jackpot is Albany to Burlington.
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Wondering the same thing.
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That is a sharp right turn between 108 and 114
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Euro 114hrs vs GGEM 108hrs 4mb and 3 miles difference.
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This is the first Euro run I'd take for the area. Looks like a January 2011 2 part event, but with higher totals.
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CCB FTW
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UKMET is 6-10 for most of the area.
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All eyes on Dr. No
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Going to be a long ride from Rockville to Hagerstown.
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CMC, GFS and UKMET definitely show less northern stream involvement compared to 12z. It's subtle but heights over the Great lakes are higher during the storm. A good reason to be cautiously optimistic.
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CMC actually has a good H5. Essentially looks very close to the blizzard of 83 in the eastern 3rd of the country at both H5 and the surface.
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So much for no Gulf coast low
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Yep I think the lack of a strong primary is also a factor on the runs showing a quick coastal transfer. I'd rather not rely on that though.
