Amped
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Everything posted by Amped
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Pretty decent thump event.
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Sleet makes it into Frederick at the height of the storm.
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UKMET is a disaster everywhere southeast of Frederick to Manchester once you factor in sleet.
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That's why we let dogs pee and poop in it.
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Also WTF is wrong with the GFS? Numerous upgrades over the years, with little or no improvement in forecasting skill in the months after the upgrade. NAM is still the laughing stock, but GFS is providing plenty of extra comic relief this storm.
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GGEM notice how the purple line holds steady in every other area, while it keeps chipping away in the DC area.
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Good run for the Shenandoah, heavy snow extends further down than 12z. Not as good for the rest of us. A lot of that is sleet on the SE edge. .
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A lot of sleet this run
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Going to be a fun 6 hrs
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Not surprisingly.
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Also doing a pretty big norlun just north of the MD line. Keeps Precip going in philly long after the low exits.
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Not what I said. I pointed out a trend on the GGEM. I also pointed out that the GFS's should be tossed because it was turning the storm OTS faster than any other mode.
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Looks close to the 12z Euro in most places
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Active mid December with multiple event potential
Amped replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
PD 1 storm was a bomb. The ULL held together. I don't think it is a good analog PDII and the blizzard of 1983 are probably better analogs for SNE. High placement was nearly identical in 1983 PDII wad a similar troff lifting out and weak coastal, High placement was similar but a lot stronger. Also had a deep tropical connection -
GFS shows a rain snow line with almost no sleet in the transition zone. This almost never happens in a CAD setup.
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That is a sharp cutoff.
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You can see why the euro trended south of 00z if you look at the jet streak under the troff. It's stronger and further SE this run.
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Ouch
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GFS will probably lose. It's just flattening out the wave too fast. There is not a 2/5/10 confluence zone there to crush it.
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GFS is out on a limb having heaviest snowfall over us. Every other model now shows it NE PA to BOS. I'm taking a page from DTs playbook and tossing the GFS.
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Closed 700mb low over Atlantic city, so That probably Implies NYC will get crushed and could be the jackpot of the whole event.. Sharp cutoff north of there though.
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Big wiff north of NYC almost like FEB 2010, but cutoff is a bit further north.
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More progressive troff FTW. I think It's the Pacjet behind the storm that causes this since it didn't start out more progressive.
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There has been a trend to slow the troff down like most big systems ever since I can remember. Hopefully this is a hiccup. 3 more runs on this trend and the jackpot is Albany to Burlington.
