Amped
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Everything posted by Amped
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No US landfalls through day 10.
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Seems like Denver usually got snow in September back in the 90s. 9/8 is a little early. I think the record earliest is 9/2. -
A couple GEFS Para members have something developing near NW Cuba and moving into west FL next week. One has a 957mb low moving into Tampa. There is some pretty low shear in the area if an initial disturbance can get going. That area is the only threat to the US within the next 7-10 days, anything else is further away.
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Really not seeing anything I'm that impressed with. Take away storms above 1000mb and we really don't have that many storms this season and none in upcoming model forecasts.
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He is horrible during hurricanes. He Tries to make every gust of wind an EF5 tornado and it just keeps going on for hours. He'll repeat something like "There's another 150,000 mph wind gust, man eating anacondas are flying off the side of the building, godzilla fire breath just vaporized another car windshield" about 1000 times over the course of the night.
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Starting in the next 24 hrs, Models are showing a big plume of moisture coming north from the Amazon (French Guina, Guyana, Suriname ) into the Lesser Antilles and Caribbean. This should give the AEWs moving through the area a boost during the next 7 days while it lasts.
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GFS closes off a 700mb and 850mb low. For some reason it doesn't develop until the Yucatan. Any shear is out of the northeast. ICON CMC and UKMET are all more bullish on this system than the GFS and Euro. I think there's a chance every model is too conservative on this wave. It could easily be a major hurricane by the central Caribbean given the conditions.
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Significant Severe Weather Event Possible Thursday, August 27, 2020
Amped replied to weatherwiz's topic in New England
Westport got hit pretty bad again. Had quite a bit of wind and hail. -
CMC trying to get something going east of the lesser Antilles also day 2. It's not holding together very well, but it's in an area of low shear and high pwat, so I see no obvious reason for it to fall apart.
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And definitely Steve Irwin. they both get the same adrenaline rush from danger.
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We all know it takes at least 6 months to determine whether it was a Cat 4 or Cat 5 at landfall. Stop speculating
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When they say "get to higher ground" in Louisiana the mean "move to another state".
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Guess which model had an elongated blob with 20 different centers moving around like drunken flies?
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Never seen a TC with a 500mb vorticity field like this.
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Reminder that no model shown 2 hurricanes coming ashore. It's one or the other or none.
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4mb drop from the last pass.
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The center did look pretty tight on visible earlier today. Some convection around the center now. Hurricane models are showing a 25-30mb pressure drop before it hits the Yucatan. I take these models more seriously in the near term with storms over warm water in low shear, with a small core. Ernesto, Micheal and Harvey all experienced these kind of deepening rates when they were near the Yucatan. Watch closely the next few hours if the burst over the center continues to grow, it could be an impressive 6-18hr RI event.
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All the stronger solutions track further northeast. Although recon found the center pretty far south, it is broad and weak enough that it can still reform.
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It has a very impressive dual outflow channel for the next 48hrs before it makes landfall.
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Still too early. These circulations always close off and start deepening rapidly 6 hrs before landfall.
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Unusually good structure for a landfalling spout.
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Euro is ugly CMC UKMET NAVGEM ICON all like the idea of a Bahamas/FL storm and a west central gulf storm day 6-7, so I'm not totally buying the Euro. I'd actually be a little surprised if the favorable conditions yielded nothing.
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Upgraded to Hurricane. RAW ADT is 6.0 with 1.7T/6hr constraint set. They only set that limit when a storm is about to nuke.
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I think Patricia was close, but I don't recall what the exact percentages were.
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Not too shaby
