Amped
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Everything posted by Amped
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Ugly coastal flooding setup too.
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Odd looking December 1992 like system. it backs into the coast.
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Yeah I'm not seeing seeing a perfect pattern there. Troff in CA and ridge over TX gives little room for a low coming out of the gulf.
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Can we buy a 50/50 low?
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If DCA only undermeasured a major snowstorm by .4" it would be a lifelong dream come true for most mid atlantic folks.
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Anyone remember this event? 30-40 totals weren't as widespread, but it looks like rates were comparable over S VT and NW mass.
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Also was pretty slow moving. I do think there are comparable setups from 30+ years ago that didn't produce these kinds of totals. Warmer ocean temps could be assisting it.
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LES rates and probably ratios too.
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I pitty the fool who took the under in Binghamton.
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March 2001 Feb 2010 March 2017 March 93 April 97 Those probably included some upslope , but so does this.
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Sleeting again here
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Looks like the CC line is accurate over the mountains.
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18z NAM came south with the low track, but the mixing line is further north and the Deathband almost runs across the PA/NY state line.. Believable considering there's a lot more precip near Pittsburgh then most models had.
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Huge flakes in Columbia. Tooo bad we probably only have another 20-30 minutes left.
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Euro has 8" in Albany, rgem has 30". They also have fun forecasts on the north side of this storm.
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At least we still have the RGEM 850mb wraparound mesobomb to track.
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Western shift is due to the following 3 things 1. The troff keeps trending, slower with higher heights ahead of it. 2. #1 is really bad when there is a high moving offshore. 3. The primary in the OV keeps trending stronger.
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Last second trends always make an accurate forecast practically impossible. Now it's up to mets to gamble and extrapolate the models even further NW cause the models are playing catch up and won't quite make it.
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Just go all the way to Hagerstown at that point. Pretty easy drive up 70, and easy to pick up 68 if you need to get even further west.
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In 2017 GFS' had the snow sleet line 50 miles too far SE and it underdid the warm layer by about 4C
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RGM death band now includes Garret County, State Collage Binghamton and Albany It gets the sleet line into NNJ. Why do we track these things again?
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Low is just across the bay from Baltimore at 54.
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If CMC is correct this has all the makings of a bust From DC to PHI and Burbs. NYC will get a good thump but even there they will have sleet and a dryslot and struggle to make the low end of whatever ridiculously high range the NWS gives.. This looks exactly like most Non-megalopolis storms. Death band State College to Scranton to Albany to Concord.
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Pretty much in line with my thinking.
