Amped
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Everything posted by Amped
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Actually that shows plenty of precip surrounding the center. Also there's already a convective burst wrapping around. So it is probably about to take off, with a much larger eye.
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My favorite part of being in the Greek alphabet was that nobody refers to the storm as "HE" or 'SHE". Of course now someone did anyway.
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Next 6 hours is key to see what it does. If a feeder band can form on the western Yucatan coast and then wrap around the north side of the storm there's a good chance it RIs again. If it keeps the same line through the center look, it probably stays a Cat1/2.
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No eye will form with that linear band cutting the storm in half. GFS eventually wraps it around the storm but not until after landfall as it's moving back into the gulf. You can see the evolution in the 500mb rh fields. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500rh&rh=2020100618&fh=12&r=caribbean&dpdt=&mc=
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You can see very little precip on the north side of this despite the huge monster band to the south.
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Massive convective blob well southeast of the center. Thats gonna mess things up.
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There's a noticeable fujiwara between Delta and Gamma on the visible the last couple hours.
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Getting out of range but radar showing only 1 eyewall now. Even though it looks ragged, the next convective burst have an easier time clearing it out.
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Looks like concentric eyewalls on sat and radar even though there's no sign of it on recon. Both eyes are pretty small so recon might have missed a second wind max. That would explain why the pressure isn't tumbling like wilma and the eye is having trouble clearing out.
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Going down at about 3 mb/ hr. This may come close to Felix's TD to Cat 5 record.
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Okay I'll start. The windspeeds are gong to have a pretty big Delta Going through the eyewall was like going through a Delta function.
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The pressure only fell 12 mb in about the last 8 hrs. Although it may qualify as RI it is now likely undergoing RI+. The next 12 hrs will put the last 12hrs to shame.
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HMON and HWRF in perfect agreement with a 929mb low over Cancun. HMON is a few hours faster.
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Not as big as Mathew, but that's an impressive1008mb 5mph electrified blob to the south of delta.
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That's Grand Cayman, and it is showing a closed ring now.
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The core of Delta is too small for most models to resolve and simulate properly. Global Models underestimated Wilma and Felix for the same reason. They've gotten better, but resolving something the size of delta requires a lot of extra resolution and processing power. Probably best left to the nested hurricane models, but those are far from perfect either.
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A massive convective burst in the eastern eyewall is rapidly expanding. It looks like it's going to dwarf the last few. This might be the breaking point.
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978mb this pass. 65kt sfmr, but it's flagged. Edit: Extrap was lower but drop was 984mb again.
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This could be a Cozumel/Cancun strike, yes. And a powerful one at that. I am aggressive on initial maximum intensity by the Yucatán Channel regardless if it strikes the NE Yucatán or skirts through. Hard to get in the center of a pinhole eye, but Cancun is in a pretty bad spot.
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Gotta consider the possibility of it hitting the Yucatan now since it's south of the forecast track
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986mb extrapolated 55kt sfmr The center is also at 16.1 N which is south of where most models had it.
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Weakens from 968mb to 994mb before it hits.
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Convecction is rapidly expanding to the NW of a storm. There is almost a line where it starts. I remember several other storms showing this type of signature before RI.
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GFS 978mb at 48hrs this run. Also further south giving it more time to bomb. Edit Bottoms out at 966hrs. Core organized at around 30hrs 992mb probably Cat1. Avoids land and doesn't start to hit the cooler waters in the gulf until around 66hrs. That would give it 36hrs. Only thing keeping the environment from being perfect is Gamma,. Hard to tell if Gamma decides to bail out or hang in there, it's been inconsistent from run to run.
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The simulated IR we've been waiting for all season.
