Amped

Snowing hard SW of DC at 144 on the Euro

700mb wind maps says it all. Screaming Jet from KS to Bermuda. Ahead of the low there's almost no southerly winds. Not taping any juice with that setup.

Takes a jog north between 174-180.

There's an impressive inverted troff behind the storm. You can probably add another 4-6" to the jackpot to account for those "wrap around snow showers" This won't matter until we know more about the storm track though.

00z Euro day7-8 storm looks almost identical to the 12z GFS. Mostly rain and ZR for us.

I think we can do 50-60" with hurricane force winds. Give it a few more runs.

Nice to see all models agree that this is going too far south exclusive or too far north.

CMC 240 storm is a work of art

Baja cutoff this run. The strong gradient across the middle of the country is favorable for overrunning events though.

Epic

Finally models showing cold and a 50/50 low in the long range. The stupid ridge over the gulf coast is our issue now.

Epic

204 Euro OMG crazy storm. Ripping snow for the whole area

If you thought the GFS's 500mb height surface low was a mismathch,, wait until you see the Euro.

Best 500mb implied snowstorm I've seen all year. It just doesn't happen at the surface.

I like the setup though. Plenty of time for it to come north.

Gotta love how that 1007mb low in the gulf becomes a 1014mb low over E NC. Thanks confluence zone.

1953 was unique with that feature. I'm not saying it makes a good analog though.

UKMET is way different at 500mb and similar to Nov 1953 in concept. The ridge/block over the great lakes hops over the ULL and joins with the ridge building offshore.. It impedes the storms progress,. but isn't strong enough to force the coastal back into Upstate NY like 1953.

Too many moving parts on the UKMET. Bizarre looking H5 low over lake Huron that seems misplaced.

That looks almost exactly like Jan 23 1966. Not actually good event until you get to I81

I really never thought the MillerA/B was a good way to characterize a storm. I think his intent was to characterize zonal ULL with W-E moving systems as Miller B, and amped up full latitude troffs with S-N moving systems as Miller A. However, whether the initial surface low forms in the TN/OH Valley or along the east coast is determined by the locations of fronts, CAD, moisture and small scale disturbances within the troff, or just ahead of it. Sometimes both develop simultaneously like February 2010. Sometime there is one low directly over the SC/NC mountains like Feb 2006, kind of both a primary and a coastal.. Also storms can turn right or left as they track up the coast depending on amplification timing and confluence ahead of the storm. So in summary I consider the Miller A/B a sometimes difficult to make distinction that doesn't tell us much about what the storms going to bring unless it happens to be one of the few that fits well into one category.. .

Euro can't decide whether it wants to phase or not. Odd looking disjointed split flow.

Looks like UKMET fixed last nights euro run. Similar with the southern stream, but keeps the high a lot further west.