Amped
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NHC issues a special 2pm advisory 958mb 110mph Florence November 1994 is the closes analog. It didn't deepen as fast but reached a similar intensity and took a similar track. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Florence_(1994)
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Going to need some post season reanalysis on this. It was probably at least 10mb deeper than analyzed at 18z yesterday. However ADT numbers have not change much since 2am. Most of the Deepening probably occurred yesterday
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So looks like all models the NHC and the ADT were way under on the intensity. Almost a Cat 3
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992mb 55kt? It's got a warm core with a cold core wrapped around it and an eye. I'd have guessed it's somewhere near 980mb and 75kt.
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As for what prevented the Caribbean storm from forming, Looks like it was the stupid 500mb low over Florida. It appears at around the same time the GFS lost the storm.
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Yeah it's a little perplexing. GFS was also too weak with Episilon, and had trouble handling the phase. It was it splitting it into 2 lows for a while.
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The GFS blew chunks with both storms
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Looks a lot like the output from the Euro 2 weeks ago. Just a giant elongated wind field. Euro keeps showing a 2nd system trying to form in the western gulf. Although no other model is showing second low pressure in the GOM, all of them have lower pressures there than the GFS.
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Donna was almost ideal for a FL to ME hit.
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GFS digs the southern stream a lot more this run. End result, a TC phasing with a bomb cyclone. You better hope that thing stays offshore, 250 miles west and it's hurricane force winds along almost the entire east coast.
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Models trends with the central Atlantic cutoff. I'm gonna go out on a limb and say it might be bigger and stronger than currently shown.
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Models keep trending further south and stronger with whatever subtropical mess forms south of Bermuda. This is not a good trend if you are rooting for a strong TC. It will disrupt anything that tries to form in the Caribbean by pulling it north before it has a chance to organize. It is also in a high shear environment so it has little chance of become a strong TC itself. Still plenty of time for this to change though.
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Why the day 10 storm might actually form: Large size storms more likely too be picked up 10 days in advance. This thing is huge. It's been on multiple GFS runs Has ensembles support 12z CMC also showing something although it's a strung out mess. Has a large time window of favorable conditions .This makes it more likely something will form maybe late but not never. Why it might not form: The GFS sometime erroneously shows TCs forming in the western Caribbean in the long range. The Euro and EPS are not showing it.
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The Euro and CMC show much stronger blocking day 10 over Greenland than the GFS. Reminds me a little another setup where a storm came out of the central Caribbean and ran into a strong blocking pattern. I wont name the storm, but the Euro nailed it. I'm surprised DT hasn't issued a "Ruh Oh Shaggy" yet.
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00z GEPS and 12z GEFS show something also. 19th-23rd timeframe.
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Anyone have S shaped storm on their bingo card?
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Eye is now showing up on radar http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/RadarArchive/KBRO/loop.html
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That is not a very hot look at landfall. Irene 2.0
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The next band in line to cause a convective burst looks even juicier, so hopefully nothing disrupts it.
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Southern part of the core looks like it's tightened up. Maybe this next attempt at an eye will have better luck.
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Chasing its tail
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In a good spot to take advantage of the fact the gulf is shaped like a giant comma.
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Pressure has risen from 974mb -976mb in the last 2 hrs. Don't know what's going on, but it's not strengthening.
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More of an eye too.
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Actually that shows plenty of precip surrounding the center. Also there's already a convective burst wrapping around. So it is probably about to take off, with a much larger eye.
