Amped
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Everything posted by Amped
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GFS with one of it's most 2020 runs ever. Every other model allows the NErly flow @ 500mb to capture it and pull it SW across central America. GFS showed that a few runs ago but now changed it's mind. I think it's a fugiwara effect with a convective blob to the north that's preventing it from being pulled SW but I'm open to other suggestions. Probably nothing like this verifies.
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HMON deepens from 999mb at 48hrs to 943mb at 93hrs. Solid Cat3-4 at landfall over an area that's mostly jungle.
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ECMWF, CMC GFS are in good agreement on a TS south of Jamaica at 72hrs. It drifts southwest into central America on all models but takes varying amounts of time. It doesn't have time to deepen into a major Hurricane on any model however.
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Didn't even make headlines with all the election stuff. There's a decent amount of damage.
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The IR appearance is finally starting to degrade. Amazing because radar has been showing only a few whisker bands in the SW half of the storm since landfall
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It also got onshore fast and didn't build up hours of suspense. I like watching storm chases that just cut to the chase.
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Finally an actual Cat 2 observation for a Cat2 Hurricane.
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Maybe it strengthens a little. If the pressure only fell 12mb in the last 12 hrs,, it's not going to make CAT3 extrapolating that rate over the next 6 hrs.
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This looks similar in intensity the last 3 Hurricanes to hit SE LA. Gustav, Isaac and Nate. It was a raw T 7.4 at one point last night. I think the window to deepen has just about ended. It will probably hold this intensity +-5mb up to landfall.
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Middle of the night weather check. Raw T up to 7.0 This could be the best 6 hr RI of the season.
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Recon only found a 991mb pressure. A little baffled too seeing as it appears to be forming an eyewall quickly.
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The eye is wrapping up fairly quickly. Probably only has 8hrs left over the warm ssts. Shear kicks in in about 21hrs. 100 miles south of the LA coast.
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HWRF doing a good job teasing.
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Not too bad, but not amazing either
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Next recon on it's way. Really wish MX Belize had working radars cause it's hard to tell how far convection is wrapping around the center.
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It's the ULL forming a new system and Zeta getting ripped apart. CMC and even the Ukmet show Zeta being ripped apart over the apps. I think the Euro holds onto Zeta too long. It's not going to cross the apps and still be a 988mb low.
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Euro looks strange between 90 and 96 hrs. The low is racing NE and then suddenly takes a jog back to the SW and weakens. I can see it slowing down or taking a turn to the SE, but the SW movement doesn't make sense in a fast flow.
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988 drop. T-9hrs from landfall. HWRF has a 979mb Cat1 which seams reasonable.
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CMC starting to kick off something in the Carribean Saturday. GFS takes almost another 72hrs to get it going.
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The outflow and core look impressive for a storm at this latitude.
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GFS has a similar outer band forming, but it isn't supposed to happen for another 30 hrs.
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Epsilon weakened a lot last night, but has made a very quick comeback the last 3 hrs. Eye is back out and T numbers are back up to 4.6. The west side of the storm looks healthy again.
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Euro is similar. It backs into Iceland as a 940mb low in the next few frames.
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2020 can be added to the list now, Aug-26th - Oct21st Laura, Teddy, Delta , Epsilon. A very good season, but the alphabet record was padded with namewaster storms.
