I'm fine with this run.
It's an OTS track that could be easily avoided by slower troff with higher heights ahead of it. A shift that almost always happens inside 72hrs.
UKMET is good, but ICON is the top seed for 12z so far.
Gotta give it some bonus points too for pulling the surface low back down from Long Island to Cape May.
You are forgetting the perfectly timed NS system over the Dakotas. That's going to yank it back into the coast and create a stalemate tug of war. Probably crawls from VA to ME over the following 48hrs.
Insane run of the gfs para. It's a March 58 look alike on the 500 maps. Only difference is the a initial surface low in the Midwest. After that the blocking scheme and the evolution of the troff through it are very similar.
The ridge retrograding from GA to TX between 60 and 78 is brutal Usually it's impossible for us to get rid of SE ridges. I don't know what to believe anymore.
Well if the euro is going to keep trending less progressive with tomorrows system and more progressive with the 28th then 2021 sucks as badly as 2020.
It's only the one storm we need to trend slower coming out of the southwest that doesn't.