Jump to content

Amped

Members
  • Posts

    14,168
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by Amped

  1. I81 is the only area overperforming. The dryslot is having a tough time getting west of Frederick.
  2. Normally I like the Canadian models, but they lost all my trust with this storm after yesterday.
  3. Agreed, that does not look like a feature that is predictable 2 days out.. No reason to close everything Monday and Tuesday just for that.
  4. Some of the snow has already fallen in southern areas.
  5. Unfortunately only the E part of SE is correct.
  6. Yeah in Baltimore the best 6 hr period is 18z tuesday
  7. Really our best 6hr total in this storm is like 2". It's a pixie dust marathon
  8. RGEM still out to lunch over PA but it looks pretty similar to the Euro here.
  9. RGEM tucks all the way down almost to Norfolk. It is not close to doing that.
  10. Improved for the NW crew. About the same everywhere else.
  11. The GFS has a NW-SE orientation of the heaviest precip which means it's an inverted troff and not a deform band. Euro has an actual SW-NE deform band CMC has both a deform band and inverted troff in the huge blob it spits out.
  12. The certain thing about this storm is we're likely getting 3-5" from the first half of it. There is a lot less confidence in the second half of the storm which will make or break it. This is the part I am pretty nervous about. These coastal tucks are pretty hard to pull off, especially with a Miller B in an amplifying flow. The jet is only going to stay favorably oriented for so long before it arcs too much. If the low escapes to the northeast this will be a fairly large bust. We will be waiting for 12 hrs for a deform band that is just 6 hrs of on and off flurries. I'm not expecting it to be that bad, but I am still leaning conservatively with the second part of the storm.
  13. We all know that if we were actually getting a 30" snowstorm the 18z NAM would be showing at least 60"
  14. List of 2 part events since I've been in MD: All had a long dryslot and or mixing in the middle. 2/9-2/10 1/26/11 2/13/2014 1/13/2019
  15. I'd keep it 8-12 along I 95 until NNJ. Just too much room for a dryslot and mixing. to go with a blockbuster there. Going to need major tuck to get it.
  16. Less of a dryslot than 00z, but the track and evolution look really similar.
  17. Only the RGEM it's 3X as much for a lot of us.
  18. Every model has a more robust NS vortex coming down from Canada. This is similar to what happened with the December 2003 storm if it verifies. I was waiting for it but didn't think it would suddenly appear on one run. 6z runs are going to be telling to see if this is real or a hiccup.
  19. CMC is best case scenario for everyone. Form VA to ME just about. It's the only model showing a HECS.
×
×
  • Create New...