Amped
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Everything posted by Amped
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That is a pretty impressive 500mb vortex ready to plow over us on the NAM 84. Only mentioning it cause the Euro was similar. That vortex is the driver of this potential event. Assuming it tracks right over us as shown, it will ring out any available moisture in the atmosphere even if that's not much. So if the H5 track holds and the surface is cold enough it can easily over-perform similar to the 1/6/2015 clipper.
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The 18z GEFS actually has a lot of members that support the Euro.
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Looks like we're back to northern stream systems. They tend to be drier and faster moving. The low is in a nice spot, just doesn't stay there long.
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Worked out pretty well. 100% needed a WSW, and it was a good idea to cap the higher totals to avoid a large bust.
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Yep, "warm ground" usually means "warm air and lousy rates".
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6-10" forecasts did really well in most areas. I don't see anyone in those areas with a lot less than 6 or a lot more than 10.
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NWS went lower than models too, but not that low.
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Is that over Chester, VA?
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Back edge came through and we're down to a couple flurries now.
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Snowing pretty heavily with small flakes.
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32 line at about 1600ft in the catoctins
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Warm temps to start, possible sleet mixing.
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Guess the only thing to do now for us northern folks is extrapolate the trend on the HRRR
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Sounds like it's 46 degrees everywhere.
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Baltimore Wilmington Philly still right on the edge. Tough call for a few million people.
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Yes we definitely see this movie a lot, especially with juicy systems coming up from the gulf coast states. The 2016 blizzard was not expected to hit Somerset-Allentown-NYC as hard as it did. I can easily see this band setting up over I95 or MOCO.
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32 in Frostburg 38 in Cumberland.
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Hugging the NAM.
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Neutral tilt as it approaches the MS valley. Perfect timing so far.
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Yeah potential for a huge bust either way from IAD to Baltimore.
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Was in the 60s the day before the March 2018 snowstorm in Frederick. Snow had no problem accumulating 18hrs later. Models are showing temps dropping 29/30F in the city with upper 20s north and west. Warm ground is a big factor when it's 32/33 and snowing lightly. 29 and dumping 2"/hr is going to be a flash freeze and a commutemageddon if we didn't have the day off.
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Going to be a pretty cool loop over the next 12hrs when the troff rapidly establishes a negative tilt.
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CMC, RGEM, and EURO look similar probably correct. GFS, HRRR shows the same track but amounts are probably overdone. ICON, NAM too far south, not on the winning team UKMET probably too far south but better than the ICON, NAM.
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I can see not going with 10+ totals on the GFS because of possible mixing issues at the start. 2-4" is really low balling it though. Factor in a probable flash freeze and it's almost 100% chance of a high impact event that deserves a WSW.
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NWS actually gives us a good chance for an over-performer. Add it to the list: 1/30/2010 1/6/2015 1/12/2019 Pending: 1/3/2022
