Nothing off the table, could track easily track over Detroit, or end up a cutoff low over Arizona. There isn't anything really pinning this pattern down.
Got a high in the perfect spot, a 50/50 low and the shortwave is a well defined 540-546 split. This is usually how a KU storm starts, not saying it will happen though.
JFK: 8.1" on .9 precip but Flushing Meadows 7.9" on .53" precip.
Didn't happen they were both along the same band.
The .53" is probably correct for both sites. Gives about 15:1 ratios.
Can see the surface low trying to form off NC on IR
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-eastcoast-14-24-1-10-2&checked=latlon-map-id-glm_flash&colorbar=undefined
You don't need to be a weather buff to know a warning is more serious than an advisory, Just like you probably don't need to be one to look out the window tomorrow morning and realize it's not worth trying to go into work.
The nam was initialized with a stronger low off the Florida coast. This tracks out to sea and takes some of the precip with it.
Edit: not initialized but the low is stronger by the time it's off the carolinas.