Amped
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Everything posted by Amped
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Western shift is due to the following 3 things 1. The troff keeps trending, slower with higher heights ahead of it. 2. #1 is really bad when there is a high moving offshore. 3. The primary in the OV keeps trending stronger.
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Last second trends always make an accurate forecast practically impossible. Now it's up to mets to gamble and extrapolate the models even further NW cause the models are playing catch up and won't quite make it.
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Just go all the way to Hagerstown at that point. Pretty easy drive up 70, and easy to pick up 68 if you need to get even further west.
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In 2017 GFS' had the snow sleet line 50 miles too far SE and it underdid the warm layer by about 4C
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RGM death band now includes Garret County, State Collage Binghamton and Albany It gets the sleet line into NNJ. Why do we track these things again?
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Low is just across the bay from Baltimore at 54.
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If CMC is correct this has all the makings of a bust From DC to PHI and Burbs. NYC will get a good thump but even there they will have sleet and a dryslot and struggle to make the low end of whatever ridiculously high range the NWS gives.. This looks exactly like most Non-megalopolis storms. Death band State College to Scranton to Albany to Concord.
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Pretty much in line with my thinking.
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Pretty decent thump event.
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Sleet makes it into Frederick at the height of the storm.
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UKMET is a disaster everywhere southeast of Frederick to Manchester once you factor in sleet.
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That's why we let dogs pee and poop in it.
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Also WTF is wrong with the GFS? Numerous upgrades over the years, with little or no improvement in forecasting skill in the months after the upgrade. NAM is still the laughing stock, but GFS is providing plenty of extra comic relief this storm.
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GGEM notice how the purple line holds steady in every other area, while it keeps chipping away in the DC area.
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Good run for the Shenandoah, heavy snow extends further down than 12z. Not as good for the rest of us. A lot of that is sleet on the SE edge. .
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A lot of sleet this run
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Going to be a fun 6 hrs
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Not surprisingly.
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Also doing a pretty big norlun just north of the MD line. Keeps Precip going in philly long after the low exits.
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Not what I said. I pointed out a trend on the GGEM. I also pointed out that the GFS's should be tossed because it was turning the storm OTS faster than any other mode.
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Looks close to the 12z Euro in most places
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Active mid December with multiple event potential
Amped replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
PD 1 storm was a bomb. The ULL held together. I don't think it is a good analog PDII and the blizzard of 1983 are probably better analogs for SNE. High placement was nearly identical in 1983 PDII wad a similar troff lifting out and weak coastal, High placement was similar but a lot stronger. Also had a deep tropical connection -
GFS shows a rain snow line with almost no sleet in the transition zone. This almost never happens in a CAD setup.
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That is a sharp cutoff.
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You can see why the euro trended south of 00z if you look at the jet streak under the troff. It's stronger and further SE this run.
