Amped

1953 was unique with that feature. I'm not saying it makes a good analog though.

UKMET is way different at 500mb and similar to Nov 1953 in concept. The ridge/block over the great lakes hops over the ULL and joins with the ridge building offshore.. It impedes the storms progress,. but isn't strong enough to force the coastal back into Upstate NY like 1953.

Too many moving parts on the UKMET. Bizarre looking H5 low over lake Huron that seems misplaced.

That looks almost exactly like Jan 23 1966. Not actually good event until you get to I81

I really never thought the MillerA/B was a good way to characterize a storm. I think his intent was to characterize zonal ULL with W-E moving systems as Miller B, and amped up full latitude troffs with S-N moving systems as Miller A. However, whether the initial surface low forms in the TN/OH Valley or along the east coast is determined by the locations of fronts, CAD, moisture and small scale disturbances within the troff, or just ahead of it. Sometimes both develop simultaneously like February 2010. Sometime there is one low directly over the SC/NC mountains like Feb 2006, kind of both a primary and a coastal.. Also storms can turn right or left as they track up the coast depending on amplification timing and confluence ahead of the storm. So in summary I consider the Miller A/B a sometimes difficult to make distinction that doesn't tell us much about what the storms going to bring unless it happens to be one of the few that fits well into one category.. .

Euro can't decide whether it wants to phase or not. Odd looking disjointed split flow.

Looks like UKMET fixed last nights euro run. Similar with the southern stream, but keeps the high a lot further west.

CMC is a decent snowstorm

CMC gives us a much better chance next week than the GFS.

I don't think we're getting a snowstorm until the GAK low retrogrades or weakens significantly.

More flurries.

The 1003mb low over MN at 144hrs on the 06z GFS is now a 1037mb high on the 18z run.

Strange setup at 216. Closed H5 over IN, but no surface low. Looks like something to watch on future runs though.

The confluence looks a lot further SW this run.

Hopefully the block retrogrades all the way to the EPO domain. Right now the GFS long range is really giving me a Feb 98 vibe

Not a snowstorm accept for a few inches in the NYC metro. It does go straight through the upstream ridge though.

Maybe it'll trend east

pivotal weather

New GFS para takes the low offshore from 1003mb to 976mb in 12hrs. That stretches plausibility a bit for east coast cyclogenesis.

GFS lets the southern stream escape OTS but it's close to phasing something.

Ugly wave 1 in the wrong hemisphere.

Some guy in SE VA. They'll get 3-5" from their sneaky costal skimmer on 1/3 which will quickly sizzle away in the pack torch. Everyone else is SOL.

Low Tracks over Hartford CT,, but west of the Hudson stays snow. Interesting storm. Almost looks like Dec 2001 further west. Edit: All of ME changes over to rain.

Captured coastal setup on the GFS We get some decent snow but much better to our NE. Wilmington to Philly FTW

Yeah I guess there is a chance at something day 8-9. Going to need it to happen a lot further west if it's going to track up the coast though.