And the scary part is I think the QPF it's showing over PA is too light given the firehose. Should be a massive area of 30+ from Garret county to Binghamton .
Okay so the Euro was a southern outlier and has not much support from ensembles?
I thought this Euro run was wonky anyway and should have phased. The HP is pretty darn far east and extends down the coast. It's not easy for something to slip OTS in this pattern.
GFS and CMC both had more reasonable looking outcomes.
I'm fine with this run.
It's an OTS track that could be easily avoided by slower troff with higher heights ahead of it. A shift that almost always happens inside 72hrs.
UKMET is good, but ICON is the top seed for 12z so far.
Gotta give it some bonus points too for pulling the surface low back down from Long Island to Cape May.
You are forgetting the perfectly timed NS system over the Dakotas. That's going to yank it back into the coast and create a stalemate tug of war. Probably crawls from VA to ME over the following 48hrs.