The certain thing about this storm is we're likely getting 3-5" from the first half of it.
There is a lot less confidence in the second half of the storm which will make or break it. This is the part I am pretty nervous about. These coastal tucks are pretty hard to pull off, especially with a Miller B in an amplifying flow. The jet is only going to stay favorably oriented for so long before it arcs too much.
If the low escapes to the northeast this will be a fairly large bust. We will be waiting for 12 hrs for a deform band that is just 6 hrs of on and off flurries. I'm not expecting it to be that bad, but I am still leaning conservatively with the second part of the storm.