Amped

I actually remember the CMC doing something very similar for a couple runs before the 1/2015 blizzard..

Waiting for a low to appear out of nowhere and give us 20" of snow.

CMC clobbers Wilmington like the GFS. I suspect this is the convective blob throwing things off at the last second.

GFS went way south also

This Euro run should get an honorable mention. It busted just as badly, just not over our area.

But we'll never get that one more tick south

I really never cared where they placed the L in a strung out mess like that.

I81 is the only area overperforming. The dryslot is having a tough time getting west of Frederick.

Normally I like the Canadian models, but they lost all my trust with this storm after yesterday.

967 mb 507 DM triple phaser.

Agreed, that does not look like a feature that is predictable 2 days out.. No reason to close everything Monday and Tuesday just for that.

Some of the snow has already fallen in southern areas.

Unfortunately only the E part of SE is correct.

Yeah in Baltimore the best 6 hr period is 18z tuesday

Really our best 6hr total in this storm is like 2". It's a pixie dust marathon

With 1/6" per hr rates

GFS is a touch south of 18z. Pretty good run.

Nobody gets 50" without the NAM showing 100"

RGEM still out to lunch over PA but it looks pretty similar to the Euro here.

RGEM tucks all the way down almost to Norfolk. It is not close to doing that.

Improved for the NW crew. About the same everywhere else.

Impossible to tell from the final totals map.

The GFS has a NW-SE orientation of the heaviest precip which means it's an inverted troff and not a deform band. Euro has an actual SW-NE deform band CMC has both a deform band and inverted troff in the huge blob it spits out.

The certain thing about this storm is we're likely getting 3-5" from the first half of it. There is a lot less confidence in the second half of the storm which will make or break it. This is the part I am pretty nervous about. These coastal tucks are pretty hard to pull off, especially with a Miller B in an amplifying flow. The jet is only going to stay favorably oriented for so long before it arcs too much. If the low escapes to the northeast this will be a fairly large bust. We will be waiting for 12 hrs for a deform band that is just 6 hrs of on and off flurries. I'm not expecting it to be that bad, but I am still leaning conservatively with the second part of the storm.

We all know that if we were actually getting a 30" snowstorm the 18z NAM would be showing at least 60"