Amped
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Everything posted by Amped
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Just noticed the Euro and UKMET are way slower than every other model to move the storm through Houston. GFS CMC NAVGEM and ICON have the storm at the LA border at 72hrs. EURO/UKMET have it stalled over San Antonio. Assuming the more progressive solutions verify, the rainfall duration for Houston will be much shorter. Maybe just a 6-10 hr deluge which can easily drop 10" of rain. The 40" totals won't stand much of a chance though.
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Am not liking this storm at all. At least Harvey was a nice looking CAT4 when it hit the coast. This will be an ugly mess and cause major flooding problems. Also a lot of that precip falls in 18-24hrs over the Houston area.
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Finally center is kinda showing up on radar. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/RadarArchive/KBRO2/loop.html
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Larry just needs a few more splotches before 11pm and NHC will likely upgrade it to a Jackson Pollock painting.
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Larry's outflow should get captured by the right entrance region of a jet streak over the next 24-48hrs. This might be able to intensify it again assuming the water is warm enough and the structure isn't too degraded.
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I better be able to count at least 10 MVs in the eye or it's a bust.
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Not annular anymore if it's doing another ERC. Sure looks it is based on recent microwave passes.
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Larry could stay major for the next 6 days as shown by some models. That would account for more than half of the 2021 NATL ACE at the time of dissipation.
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Has better looking outflow than Ida or Grace.
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So did the HRDPS redeem itself or are we still stuck with the NAM?
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I Thought that was an EF3/4 based on TDS height. I haven't seen any damage pics that look higher than an EF2.
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Luckily Mississippi hasn't built thousands of plywood McMansions like New Jersey has. Those things are like giant sails once a tornado hits.
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People intercepting wedges in Annapolis and NJ.
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Going to be really ugly for DE/PHL/NJ this afternoon. The good cells usually bank right. Not ruling out a second line in DC VA after the crapvection lifts out.
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Best discrete cells are hugging the bay +-10 miles.
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Goes 16 showing a to of lightning Everyone probably already woken up.
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Strong inflow trying to rip these things up.
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Apparently some models NAM/ARW NSSL want to put the best tornado params in the Wash/Bal area around 8-11z with the initial warmfront. Basically those cells in VA move to the DC BAL metro and could cause problems.
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Most of tomorrows cape will come from the 74 degree dews. Haven't seen the sun today and not expecting to tomorrow.
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Convective setups usually trend east. This one has been trending northwest so far.
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Will be a fish storm. Will add a lot of ACE. Will have a lot of IKE.
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Well turns out the neglected piece of urban blight that toppled was one of the cities historic cultural sights. Guess they did a good job disguising it.
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Wonder if there's a temporary power restoration plan. Replacing all those poles and towers won't happen quickly.
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Maybe they just needed some sleep.
