Amped
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Everything posted by Amped
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6z gefs has a few decent hits day 6-7 also.
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JFK: 8.1" on .9 precip but Flushing Meadows 7.9" on .53" precip. Didn't happen they were both along the same band. The .53" is probably correct for both sites. Gives about 15:1 ratios. -
Got 3-4 on the ground, plus an additional 12" of virga.
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Always amazes me how this much precip can evaporate.
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Delmarva stuff starting to breakout
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Can see the surface low trying to form off NC on IR https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-eastcoast-14-24-1-10-2&checked=latlon-map-id-glm_flash&colorbar=undefined
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If the dover radar we're accurate most of us would have snow already
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Puking fatties on the Hagerstown traffic cams
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You don't need to be a weather buff to know a warning is more serious than an advisory, Just like you probably don't need to be one to look out the window tomorrow morning and realize it's not worth trying to go into work.
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They don't have to. They're just going to be really sorry if they don't issue them for I95 and the city.
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The nam was initialized with a stronger low off the Florida coast. This tracks out to sea and takes some of the precip with it. Edit: not initialized but the low is stronger by the time it's off the carolinas.
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Like how the GFS takes the highest totals straight up 95 from DC to Boston. Going to make for some major issues if it over performs.
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Philly to Boston could easily get a 6+ event from this. We may be struggling to get 2.
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We settled for 1-3 on every storm last year
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Okay does the Icon have us back in a better mood?
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That is a pretty impressive 500mb vortex ready to plow over us on the NAM 84. Only mentioning it cause the Euro was similar. That vortex is the driver of this potential event. Assuming it tracks right over us as shown, it will ring out any available moisture in the atmosphere even if that's not much. So if the H5 track holds and the surface is cold enough it can easily over-perform similar to the 1/6/2015 clipper.
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The 18z GEFS actually has a lot of members that support the Euro.
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Looks like we're back to northern stream systems. They tend to be drier and faster moving. The low is in a nice spot, just doesn't stay there long.
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Worked out pretty well. 100% needed a WSW, and it was a good idea to cap the higher totals to avoid a large bust.
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Yep, "warm ground" usually means "warm air and lousy rates".
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6-10" forecasts did really well in most areas. I don't see anyone in those areas with a lot less than 6 or a lot more than 10.
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NWS went lower than models too, but not that low.
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Is that over Chester, VA?
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Back edge came through and we're down to a couple flurries now.
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Snowing pretty heavily with small flakes.
