Models all over the place with this, now they've got way stronger the last 3 runs. There is a lot of heat potential over this part of the Caribbean so a small amount of shear makes a huge difference in potential outcomes. HMON went from 1002mb to 978mb in one run. HWRF did almost the same thing. Best bet is to average the two and get 990mb like the GFS has. Probably cat1 at Yucatan landfall.