Jump to content

Amped

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    13,745

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Amped

  1. Amped
    The GFS is showing a huge precip donut forming around Grace 12hrs before landfall. Likely means rapid intensification up until landfall despite a bit of northerly shear. Possible that it becomes the first major of the season.
  2. Amped
    990mb on the drop. Ernesto 2011 got down to 975mb in the hours before yucatan landfall. Grace doesn't look that organized though.
  3. Amped
    Finally convection over the center. Almost exactly 12 hrs from landfall. Could be some impressive deepening in the next 12hrs though.
  4. Amped
    We are banking on that second line. This first line is pure crapvection.
  5. Amped
    Models all over the place with this, now they've got way stronger the last 3 runs. There is a lot of heat potential over this part of the Caribbean so a small amount of shear makes a huge difference in potential outcomes. HMON went from 1002mb to 978mb in one run. HWRF did almost the same thing. Best bet is to average the two and get 990mb like the GFS has. Probably cat1 at Yucatan landfall.
  6. Amped
    Linda is pure sat porn.
  7. Amped
    Short answer no. However lots of rain can will increase the odds of mudslides/landslides triggered by the earthquake. I'm guessing ground with higher water content is more likely to liquefy during the quake as well.
  8. Amped
    All 12z guidance keeps it south of the Bahamas.
  9. Amped
    Recon just finding some 20kt easterly winds, almost definitely an open wave. The southern convective blob is too far south of the LLJ which gives it no chance of spinning up a new circulation. Everything going in accordance with the pun I made last night THERE IS NO SAVING GRACE.
  10. Amped
    The nonexistent circulation is forecasts to track over Hispanola and Cuba. There is no saving Grace.
  11. Amped
    Todays recon and 18z GFS/GEFS mostly eliminate the possibility of any short deepening in the short term. This still has a chance to develop once it gets into the gulf in a few days.
  12. Amped
    Okay that's literally the spot where I saw the swirl/ funnel that I estimated 2000ft off the ground in yesterday's post.
  13. Amped
    Ignore the troll. This isn't the plains, so one tornado isn't a bust. I was impressed just to see supercells with a strong hook.
  14. Amped
    Saw rotation in the clouds as the storm went over Columbia. Guessing it was 2000ft off the ground.
  15. Amped
    Looks like whatever couplet is headed down 70 towards Ellicott City
  16. Amped
    Latest Recon Pass 1003mb 45kt. Not a cane . Was fun while it lasted.
  17. Amped
    It is moving WNW @ 29mph, which is fast for this latitude. Would explain the 50kt difference in windspeed across the eyewall. HWRF is developing a small cat4 between Jamaica and Cuba. Of course this is highly land interaction dependent.
  18. Amped
    One of the most lopsided hurricanes I've seen.
  19. Amped
    Raining hard with lots of thunder here in Columbia. Looks south of Ellicott city so far thankfully. Going to be ugly From BWI to College Park. This stuff ain't moving.
  20. Amped
    Convective setups almost always verify southeast of modeled. Some by a little and some by a lot. Any sort of linear mode or convective blob quickly inoculates most of the potential for the NW part of the high risk area. East coast snowstorms are the opposite, They almost always end up NW of modeled. Some by a little and some by a lot.
  21. Amped
    Tried to eat outside cause it was so warm. Very bad idea.
  22. Amped
    I'd watch the cell behind it closely in downtown ATL. It's moving over the same feeder band.
  23. Amped
    AL and N GA it looks like. Linear or blob mode over MS and NW AL.
  24. Amped
    Didn't they already lose power for like a month in central MS?
  25. Amped
    As a result of model errors canceling themselves out. It's happens sometimes with east coast systems also.
×
×
  • Create New...