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Amped

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  1. Amped
    I don't like his decision to drive through the eye to get the landfall point perfectly. He needs to get too a well built structure with plenty of time to spare and stay put during these types of storms. Better to miss the eye by a few miles than be trapped in rising water on an empty stretch of road in a foreign country. They'll always be another storm. That being said he probably just lost power and internet. He's taken a few days to resurface in past storms.
  2. Amped
    Agreed cancel all hurricane warnings. Verification will be confined to one or two stations at best. New Haven will have a hard time even getting TS conditions.
  3. Amped
    Seems to be the consensus of 00z so far. If the Euro supports it NHC probably needs to shift the warnings east into RI/MA at 5am. Could probably downgrade to a TS warning west of Old Saybrook
  4. Amped
    Odd that the pressure stays constant and winds in the NE eyewall increase 29kts form 2.5 hrs ago.
  5. Amped
    50/50 on whether the eye forms prior to landfall
  6. Amped
    Compared to Irene, isiais and Sandy, this storm is going to have a much smaller and more symmetric wind field.
  7. Amped
    Looking at the IR, it appears the QPF bomb is detonating
  8. Amped
    The name.
  9. Amped
    The GFS is showing a huge precip donut forming around Grace 12hrs before landfall. Likely means rapid intensification up until landfall despite a bit of northerly shear. Possible that it becomes the first major of the season.
  10. Amped
    990mb on the drop. Ernesto 2011 got down to 975mb in the hours before yucatan landfall. Grace doesn't look that organized though.
  11. Amped
    Finally convection over the center. Almost exactly 12 hrs from landfall. Could be some impressive deepening in the next 12hrs though.
  12. Amped
    We are banking on that second line. This first line is pure crapvection.
  13. Amped
    Models all over the place with this, now they've got way stronger the last 3 runs. There is a lot of heat potential over this part of the Caribbean so a small amount of shear makes a huge difference in potential outcomes. HMON went from 1002mb to 978mb in one run. HWRF did almost the same thing. Best bet is to average the two and get 990mb like the GFS has. Probably cat1 at Yucatan landfall.
  14. Amped
    Linda is pure sat porn.
  15. Amped
    Short answer no. However lots of rain can will increase the odds of mudslides/landslides triggered by the earthquake. I'm guessing ground with higher water content is more likely to liquefy during the quake as well.
  16. Amped
    All 12z guidance keeps it south of the Bahamas.
  17. Amped
    Recon just finding some 20kt easterly winds, almost definitely an open wave. The southern convective blob is too far south of the LLJ which gives it no chance of spinning up a new circulation. Everything going in accordance with the pun I made last night THERE IS NO SAVING GRACE.
  18. Amped
    The nonexistent circulation is forecasts to track over Hispanola and Cuba. There is no saving Grace.
  19. Amped
    Todays recon and 18z GFS/GEFS mostly eliminate the possibility of any short deepening in the short term. This still has a chance to develop once it gets into the gulf in a few days.
  20. Amped
    Okay that's literally the spot where I saw the swirl/ funnel that I estimated 2000ft off the ground in yesterday's post.
  21. Amped
    Ignore the troll. This isn't the plains, so one tornado isn't a bust. I was impressed just to see supercells with a strong hook.
  22. Amped
    Saw rotation in the clouds as the storm went over Columbia. Guessing it was 2000ft off the ground.
  23. Amped
    Looks like whatever couplet is headed down 70 towards Ellicott City
  24. Amped
    Latest Recon Pass 1003mb 45kt. Not a cane . Was fun while it lasted.
  25. Amped
    It is moving WNW @ 29mph, which is fast for this latitude. Would explain the 50kt difference in windspeed across the eyewall. HWRF is developing a small cat4 between Jamaica and Cuba. Of course this is highly land interaction dependent.
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