Amped
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Everything posted by Amped
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Radar improved dramatically over the last 1.5 hrs. The centers are close to aligned and the core is surrounded by a lot more precip.
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I don't really care about recon anyway until it gets across Cuba. Land has put Ida's RI plans on hold until tomorrow.
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Recon is circling an outer band for some reason.
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The HWRF was too low with intensity for the first time this year.
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Just enough to ruin the 60mb pressure drop Ida was trying to pull off today and cut it down to a modest 20-30mb pressure drop. No Cat3 until tomorrow.
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It already appears to be wobbling back to the west on sat and radar. The eastward jog might have just been a bluff.
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List of storms that came close to or over New Orleans since 2005 Cindy 2005 CAT1 Katrina 2005 CAT3 Gustav 2008 CAT2 Isaac 2012 CAT1 Nate 2017 CAT1 Zeta 2020 CAT3 The forecast track looks almost identical to Gustav 2008.
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Models keep speeding up the landfall time. How strong and organized it is when it enters the gulf will be key to how strong it is at landfall. If it's a 993mb borderline cat1 entering the gulf it will have enough time to become a major before LA. If it's still a 1005mb messy TS it will probably won't
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I can roughly make out the center of circulation. It looks closer to the southwest tip of Jamaica than what models initialized.
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It was a bit lopsided coming into the southern gulf. It wrapped up before landfall so I admit that was a poor choice of words.
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It's a lopsided storm, so the strongest winds go right over New Orleans.
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There's a possible Fujiwara effect with Nora, assuming Nora hit land and dissipate.
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Central LA overnight Sunday seems to be the landfall consensus. CMC, RGEM,ICON, GFS. 12z ECMWF is in west central LA but 00z run not out yet. If it comes east by about 50-75 miles then there's a pretty impressive. consensus for 108hrs out. 00z UKMET also in western LA, not bad considering it has a known southwest west bias and I would expect it to be in Mexico at this range.
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GFS and Icon have a decent storm. CMC and Euro are a big sheared mess.
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971mb is actually one of the strongest TCs I've seen on the CMC. Looks enormous also.
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I think Isaias played a pretty big role in the over-hyping of this storm. It didn't really look too bad on most models runs over the last few days.
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SW CT is in an epic dryslot
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I'm still waiting for the 925mb gulf of Maine hybrid that the GFS showed last year.
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Someones getting over 12 feet if that's all snow and 20:1 ratios.
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Okay it's safe to ask WTF is going on in NYC
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Nice little convective burst now. It's probably crossing the gulf stream.
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From now on I'm replying "Don't relocate during the eye" instead of "Stay safe Josh" before every storm.
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Must be a bad storm, it wiped Rhode Island off the map.
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The 18z GFS now shows a western gulf storm day 8-10.
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GFS went east again. Starting to look like more of a Rhode Island storm CT is probably going to be a bust with the wind.
