Amped
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Everything posted by Amped
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Big lightning burst in the eastern eyewall
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People are missing the squiggly band on radar too. Edit: here's a better shot of it. Can't say I've seen that before
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Anyone else notice the crazy looking supercell on IR to the west of the storm? That thing deserves a name also.
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It's not wobbling much on radar.
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955mb on the drop. Only lose another 53 to catch Katrina and 55 to catch Camille.
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I'm guessing it's between 945mb-950mb. Probably 105-115kt. I'm more willing to be wrong than most though.
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Hot towers going up on all sides. Radar confirms that there's a small eye.
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That's the cue for it to form a pinhole eye and increase 40kts in 6 hrs.
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The open eye is misleading. There's a robust circular CDO on IR which is probably more important than the exact eye shape, which changes every 10 minutes.
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It's closely following Laura's intensity VS time curve.
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There a decent percentage of storms that start RI at around 975mb
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Looks like another convective burst just starting up around the eye. This one looks a more circular at least for now.
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The windfield still looks a bit expanded. Only see one eyewall though which is a good sign.
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Approach from the southeast, make a sharp 90 degree turn right over the city and exits to the northeast. A track from the south that goes right over the eastern part of the city would be a close second though.
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The forecast track for Ida is far from a worst case scenario for New Orleans. I think the new Levee system assuming it was built properly can handle the surge. One good thing about the west track is that winds won't come out of the north and slam lake Pontchartrain into the city.
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Why do these things always gotta wait until they're out of radar range and there's no recon to intensify rapidly?
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Radar improved dramatically over the last 1.5 hrs. The centers are close to aligned and the core is surrounded by a lot more precip.
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I don't really care about recon anyway until it gets across Cuba. Land has put Ida's RI plans on hold until tomorrow.
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Recon is circling an outer band for some reason.
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The HWRF was too low with intensity for the first time this year.
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Just enough to ruin the 60mb pressure drop Ida was trying to pull off today and cut it down to a modest 20-30mb pressure drop. No Cat3 until tomorrow.
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It already appears to be wobbling back to the west on sat and radar. The eastward jog might have just been a bluff.
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List of storms that came close to or over New Orleans since 2005 Cindy 2005 CAT1 Katrina 2005 CAT3 Gustav 2008 CAT2 Isaac 2012 CAT1 Nate 2017 CAT1 Zeta 2020 CAT3 The forecast track looks almost identical to Gustav 2008.
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Models keep speeding up the landfall time. How strong and organized it is when it enters the gulf will be key to how strong it is at landfall. If it's a 993mb borderline cat1 entering the gulf it will have enough time to become a major before LA. If it's still a 1005mb messy TS it will probably won't
