Amped
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Everything posted by Amped
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The troff is unmissable. It's flushing out the western 3rd of the Atlantic and the entire Caribbean.
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Guess it's a matter of taste, some like the exact center, some like the right front quad eyewall. Based on this, I'd put Ponce on the exceeded cat1 expectations list.
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Was actually expecting to see Josh here.
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Down sloping could be enhancing the MV in the NW eyewall. It doesn't seem to be circulating the eye like a typical MV would.
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It's in range of PR now. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/RadarArchive/TJUA2/loop.html
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Don't know what the HWRF is doing. Has it deepening from 1004 MB to 985MB in 3 hrs. HMON shows a similar convective burst and quick deepening before PR, but it's over 24hrs not 3
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You know it's desperation time when someone posts the geps.
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Yeah this is a very intensity dependent track. If it's stronger the deep layer steering turns it north. I am leaning weaker since shear really seems to be kicking it's ass right now and I don't see much change in the upper level wind configuration over the next few days.
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The GFS caved to the Navgem. Has the storm bombing out between PR and Bermuda in fairly strong SW shear. Probably way overdone.
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Earl looks the best it has so far. 90kt 954mb latest estimate, and it might still be improving, so cat3 not out of reach.
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It's gonna rain.
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Deepening in about 25kt of SW shear.
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A hurricane, just not a pretty looking one.
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The 2010 parade of Central Atlantic fish storms has returned. Any chance for a landfall will be over Bermuda, or northeastern lesser Antilles. It's also possible something phases and hits Europe or NF.
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WPAC, Indian Ocean, and Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclones
Amped replied to 1900hurricane's topic in Tropical Headquarters
Thoughts and prayers to TD13. Hinnamnor was really hungry. Edit: Still hanging in there on visible -
It's going to be a close call next week for Cabo San Lucas. Ignore the Euro intensity because it's probably under done unless this stays close to land.
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Anyone catch the 12z Euro SE of NF. Looks like some sort of a warm core or hybrid system. It's the best thing in the basin on this run. At least the Epac may produce something interesting next week.
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Today's 12z Euro was disappointing. for the entire basin. Hopefully it's wrong.
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The happy hour GFS was a good laugh between the fake storm in the western gulf and the circle back track into NC/SC.
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Every model has fake tropical cyclones occasionally. Only the GFS insists on an absolute beast for 6 days in a row when no other model is showing it.
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Everything seems to be disappearing on models once it gets inside 5 days.
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The blob is growing in size, the entire beltway may get smoked
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Heaviest rates look like they're moving into Bethesda and maybe NW DC.
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Models have really trended Blah with this storm. It just tracks too close to the south American coast to really get it's act together. Then has 30 hrs or so to organize before hitting central America, where it could potentially spin up rapidly. just before landfall as a CAT1 or strong TS. Disappointed considering there's a lot more potential if it tracked further north.
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Thanks, forgot about that one. It's still been a long time.
