Amped
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Everything posted by Amped
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GFS is actually showing a center jump to the west between 00z and 06z. Looks suspect.
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Lots of lightning on the NW side. Looks like a band is forming there.
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Hard to buy the far west tracks with the strong SW shear. Upper winds sometimes end up steering the storm more than modeled. There should be a NE drift once it gets into the Gulf induced by the upper winds and the front to the NE. This is pretty much what the UKMET ICON and Euro are showing.
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Wouldn't be shocked if the center reformed under that northern blob. They are generally better at reforming centers than southern blobs and with the weak messy structure the center is very up for grabs right now.
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WPAC, Indian Ocean, and Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclones
Amped replied to 1900hurricane's topic in Tropical Headquarters
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Seeing no west winds to the south of the center
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Wanted: A core
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Going to guess the landfall point is somewhere near Tor Bay based on centroid extrapolation
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Has a clear westerly component to the motion the past few hours, so it might be able to clip the NE part of the main island.
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CMC and ICON came west a bit. Much better model agreement than 12z assuming the EURO doesn't go way east.
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GFS is digging the troff in the MS valley more and further west this run. Extrapolating it should hit west central FL
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Icon improved a lot. 955mb headed for Everglade City at 132hrs.
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Shear relaxes starting tomorrow night. Don't expect anything before then.
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Yeah just keeping fingers crossed the 18Z Euro and Icon are wrong about the intensity. They had some issues with Harvey in 2017 and Delta in 2020. Both those storms took off pretty fast.
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That looks ugly, might still be a tropical storm when it hits Cuba if that verifies. It has 36 hrs of very favorable conditions but if the initial low is weak and disorganized it won't be able to take advantage.
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Josh is chasing in Canada for the first time I think. This is going to be bad even by NS standards.
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The GEFS took a pretty big jump northeast.
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GFS is the furthest west of any model so it''s probably wrong. One reason is it might be having some convective feedback issues in the 42-96hr time frame. Convective blobs appear to reform the center further west several times in this timeframe.
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With cooler waters and increasing shear, it's possible the pressure doesn't change much between now and landfall. Just a big expansion of the windfield due to ET transition.
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927mb t6.7 It would be pushing cat5 if that were accurate.
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Family good track agreement from the GFS and Euro for 10 days out. GFS is quicker with development as usual. Also looks like another weaker solutions stay further south deal on the ensembles.
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ADT only off by 20mb.
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Of course the 5mb/hrs stuff only happens between recons outside radar.
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That was almost 8 hrs over land without taking much of an intensity hit.
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The ECMWF was the furthest south and likely will end up pretty accurate unless it drifts a lot further southwest.
