Amped
-
Posts
14,213 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by Amped
-
Bound to have been some RI due to conservation of angular momentum.
-
A good analog would be Katrina/Camille both took very similar tracks and had some different impacts due to the size difference.
-
The winds definitely ramped up based on radar presentation. Probably can confirm higher velocities on radar scope compared to 2 hrs ago. Clearly making a run at cat4 with a large eye
-
Definitely in beast mode now. IR is going to take a while to catch up to radar.
-
Not sure what recons doing. Flying north against the wind. That's not the way back to the eye.
-
When will people learn a watched EWRC never completes.
-
Euro is slightly further NE than 18z through 24. Safe to say it wasn't a hiccup.
-
Requesting an additional 6hrs over water before land interaction.
-
GFS keeps Tampa out of the storm surge but dumps 35" of rain.
-
GFS looks SE with the storm and troff axis through 18hrs.
-
There will always be hiccup run cycles. Sometimes it's 12 or 0z
-
Give it another run cycle or two before buying the east shift.
-
Good news is there's a pinhole eye forming. Bad news is it's on Noru
-
987.9 extrap, core has expanded a lot though.
-
CMC started east of 12z but ended up a bit west by 84hrs
-
It just needed some wind to take advantage of the TCHP, everything else was in place.
-
The core was so tiny the first time it might have been a localized effect due to a hot tower.
-
It probably reformed under the blob, so give it a couple hours to stabilize
-
This is similar to what Harvey, Delta, and Micheal did. All had a sudden convective burst that dropped the pressure from about 1003mb to 990mb in a few hours.
-
GFS already NE of 12z through 18 hrs.
-
ICON really clobbers Jacksonville. The Euro is pretty bad for them also. NE FL, GA and SC coast need to be ready for this also.
-
GFS intensity forecast was not great.
-
GFS is actually showing a center jump to the west between 00z and 06z. Looks suspect.
-
Lots of lightning on the NW side. Looks like a band is forming there.
-
Hard to buy the far west tracks with the strong SW shear. Upper winds sometimes end up steering the storm more than modeled. There should be a NE drift once it gets into the Gulf induced by the upper winds and the front to the NE. This is pretty much what the UKMET ICON and Euro are showing.
