Amped
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Everything posted by Amped
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Environmental pressure is running a bit high, so this is getting close to Hugo. A major at landfall looking likely at this point, unless it stalls just offshore while shear eats it alive.
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Extrap down to 942 SFMR around 107kt, that's on the NW side of the eye.
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In LA and MS where they made landfall it was a pretty similar track.
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Bound to have been some RI due to conservation of angular momentum.
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A good analog would be Katrina/Camille both took very similar tracks and had some different impacts due to the size difference.
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The winds definitely ramped up based on radar presentation. Probably can confirm higher velocities on radar scope compared to 2 hrs ago. Clearly making a run at cat4 with a large eye
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Definitely in beast mode now. IR is going to take a while to catch up to radar.
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Not sure what recons doing. Flying north against the wind. That's not the way back to the eye.
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When will people learn a watched EWRC never completes.
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Euro is slightly further NE than 18z through 24. Safe to say it wasn't a hiccup.
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Requesting an additional 6hrs over water before land interaction.
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GFS keeps Tampa out of the storm surge but dumps 35" of rain.
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GFS looks SE with the storm and troff axis through 18hrs.
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There will always be hiccup run cycles. Sometimes it's 12 or 0z
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Give it another run cycle or two before buying the east shift.
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Good news is there's a pinhole eye forming. Bad news is it's on Noru
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987.9 extrap, core has expanded a lot though.
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CMC started east of 12z but ended up a bit west by 84hrs
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It just needed some wind to take advantage of the TCHP, everything else was in place.
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The core was so tiny the first time it might have been a localized effect due to a hot tower.
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It probably reformed under the blob, so give it a couple hours to stabilize
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This is similar to what Harvey, Delta, and Micheal did. All had a sudden convective burst that dropped the pressure from about 1003mb to 990mb in a few hours.
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GFS already NE of 12z through 18 hrs.
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ICON really clobbers Jacksonville. The Euro is pretty bad for them also. NE FL, GA and SC coast need to be ready for this also.
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GFS intensity forecast was not great.
