Amped
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Everything posted by Amped
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And that would be a record if I'm not mistaken.
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18z GFS trying to pull a November 1950, just further north.
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I feel like every week we forget how bad models are in the day7+ time frame.
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I don't like this new Idea if bringing the arctic air down further west. It means some of the long range cold maybe a bust for the east coast.
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Models still all over the place with the pacific jet and any possible northern stream interaction. But end result in the NE is probably lots of snow for upstate NY and NNE and not much if any for the Urban corridor.
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Blocking, deampllification and the 50/50 low having a combined impact. I guess this kind of happened with the PDII storm, but it wasn't this pronounced.
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The ULL just spits out a piece of energy due east. The GFS gets more creative every year.
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18Z GFS with another ROFL run.
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Seems like most models show the jackpot Central PA, Upstate NY and NNE. Typical Inland runner, miss for I95.
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EURO is slower than 00z. Monster blocking over Ontario is even stronger.
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Estimating the 144 and 168 low positions on google earth I'm getting a distance about 36 miles.
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Was close, before the low stalled over ocean city for 18hrs. Central PA Demolished.
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Euro is close for the NW Crew.. It's south of 12z.
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GFS issue in a nutshell. Look at the pacific wave digging off the California coast. GFS is way east of the Euro and every other model. It uses that system to create some sort of a Fugiwara effect that traps the 500mb low in the northern plains.
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18z GFS even less 500mb energy ejecting. I didn't know a Dakotas cutoff low in December was a thing
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KU storm on the 23-24 that gets everyones flights canceled. That would be funny to watch.
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Euro looks somewhat similar to the cmc. Not an outlier.
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GFS having some dispersion issues.
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00z gfs supports that idea. CMC is pretty similar. This is a nasty setup in a unique pattern. Wouldn't be surprised if it extended east into GA also. -
Hopefully not a repeat of last December.
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That'll put a big dent in it t the very least.
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Hopefully we'll get a big one. Seems like we settled for small to moderate overhyped storms a lot the past few years.
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One of the ugliest looking Hurricanes you'll see make landfall. But I guess it's November so What'd you expect.
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986mb on the dropsonde not much wind at the surface.
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GFS is well west of 18Z also. Trend is towards a faster capture and northward acceleration. GFS still hits us with a lot of rain, but only cause a piece of the low hands back over the carolinas. This is suspect given the trend the last few runs.
