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Amped

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Everything posted by Amped

  1. Right now it looks like the ridge in the plains has all the momentum and isn't going to give the ULL enough time in the pocket.
  2. It's leaving the energy further back every run. It will probably get shredded like the CMC/NAVGEM are showing if it gets left much further back.
  3. 00Z GFS shows it too now, 38mb in 12hrs this time. It would be close to a 12hr deepening record for an ET cyclone if somehow it verified.
  4. Add this to the list of my favorite model glitches. CMC 180-192 shows a 39mb pressure drop on an ET cyclone over land. That's almost double the Cleveland superbomb.
  5. Don't worry we'll get a pattern change early February. I say that the first day of winter every year.
  6. 18Z GFS has silly looking 985MB low over Buffalo day 4. Gives NE plenty of snow and us plenty of wind.
  7. 850s are way too warm. Surface is too. There's no point in tracking storms until we get cold.
  8. Anyone have a meteorological explanation of why winds from the record 133kt Vrot and the 30kft+ TDS wouldn't have mixed down to the ground?
  9. Tornadoes need a NESIS or ACE like scale that would account for not just the amount of damage but the areal coverage of the damage. I don't mean any disrespect to the Ashby/Dalton, MN EF-4 it was an awesome tornado that I would have loved to catch if I was storm chasing. However, it really doesn't belong in the same class as something with a 170 mile path length that was a mile wide. https://www.weather.gov/fgf/2020_07_08_Tornadoes https://www.weather.gov/pah/December-10th-11th-2021-Tornado
  10. NIST unofficially downgraded the Joplin Tornado. https://www.nist.gov/system/files/documents/2017/05/09/NCSTACmtgDec2013LombardoJoplin.pdf
  11. Apparently every building in western Kentucky is built like crap.
  12. Here's a research paper from 2013 on the Tristate Tornado. The longest continuous path of damage path might be similar. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/268801867_The_1925_Tri-State_Tornado_Damage_Path_and_Associated_Storm_System
  13. Exactly. I still don't have any doubt this was an EF5.
  14. Joplin had like 800 missing at one point. It's hard getting people accounted for after something like this.
  15. Meh the two parts that didn't derail didn't collide with each other.
  16. Have any EF-0 or EF1s been reported yet? Seems this outbreak was mostly high end tornadoes.
  17. It's December, of course models are going to take away 100% of our snow. Can't wait until February when they only take away 80-90% of our snow.
  18. CMC and ICON have rain, however it's a nice setup on both of them similar to October 2011.
  19. Had my eye on that pattern for a couple days now. Lots of potential to deliver a fantasy storm. I think we'll see an even better run in the next few days.
  20. Our only hope for a named storm this October
  21. CMC has the winds coming out of a more easterly direction than the GFS.
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