Amped
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Everything posted by Amped
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Neutral tilt as it approaches the MS valley. Perfect timing so far.
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Yeah potential for a huge bust either way from IAD to Baltimore.
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Was in the 60s the day before the March 2018 snowstorm in Frederick. Snow had no problem accumulating 18hrs later. Models are showing temps dropping 29/30F in the city with upper 20s north and west. Warm ground is a big factor when it's 32/33 and snowing lightly. 29 and dumping 2"/hr is going to be a flash freeze and a commutemageddon if we didn't have the day off.
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Going to be a pretty cool loop over the next 12hrs when the troff rapidly establishes a negative tilt.
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CMC, RGEM, and EURO look similar probably correct. GFS, HRRR shows the same track but amounts are probably overdone. ICON, NAM too far south, not on the winning team UKMET probably too far south but better than the ICON, NAM.
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I can see not going with 10+ totals on the GFS because of possible mixing issues at the start. 2-4" is really low balling it though. Factor in a probable flash freeze and it's almost 100% chance of a high impact event that deserves a WSW.
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NWS actually gives us a good chance for an over-performer. Add it to the list: 1/30/2010 1/6/2015 1/12/2019 Pending: 1/3/2022
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NWS is pretty much using the NAM. Okay, hope that works out.
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Just go 8-12.". Pretend to have confidence.
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Going to be a tough forecast for the NW burbs. They're just beyond the sharp cutoff of a storm trending NW. Probably need warnings up all the way to the MD line based on experience with past storms.
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Yeah but CMC had more than that on the 6hr snowfall maps.
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GFS has more than every other model. I really think this will probably be a 6-10" event with not many 10+ totals.
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20" in Salisbury including 17 "in a 6 hr period.
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Funny sounding. Double warm layer at 800mb and 550mb. Not a lot of Omega in the DGZ
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GFS looks even more amped through 18hrs
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Crazy 18z GFS still had the most snow so far
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Good to see the EUro somewhat on board. I still want to wait for 00z before getting too excited. I've seen occasional run cycles where all guidance hiccups, and shows something odd before reverting back 6hrs later. This did seem like a pretty big jump from whats been shown the past several days.
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00z will be the most important run this year.
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Wow big jump north. This is the GFS run that the RGEM needed.
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There is a lot of discrete stuff ahead of the line extending all the way to the gulf coast.
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RGEM and ICON pretty bad too. NS is more amped forcing the cutoff to happen further south.
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As long as nobody makes a thread it should happen.
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The zonal flow is pretty brutal here. If something does manage to come north and produce a 6"+ event in DC It'd be very impressive.
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And that EPS member will be suing the 00z GFS for copyright infringement.
