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Amped

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Everything posted by Amped

  1. Amped
    Hopefully we'll get a big one. Seems like we settled for small to moderate overhyped storms a lot the past few years.
  2. Amped
    One of the ugliest looking Hurricanes you'll see make landfall. But I guess it's November so What'd you expect.
  3. Amped
    986mb on the dropsonde not much wind at the surface.
  4. Amped
    GFS is well west of 18Z also. Trend is towards a faster capture and northward acceleration. GFS still hits us with a lot of rain, but only cause a piece of the low hands back over the carolinas. This is suspect given the trend the last few runs.
  5. Amped
    00z ICOn brings it way west over western PA. Almost a Francis track, would be more of a tornado threat than a flood threat if it verified.
  6. Amped
    12Z GFS shows a ridiculous bounce in the track. 23.5N to 29N then back down to 26N. I expect that will be less pronounced.
  7. Amped
    Glad it's died down now. This was one of the most impressive outbreaks of 2022. Probably a lot in the EF2-EF4 range.
  8. Amped
    997mb with 57kts at the surface on the latest pass. Banding around the core looks organized. It's go time.
  9. Amped
    Center jumped north on the latest pass to where that northern convective blob just popped up.
  10. Amped
    Center still on the north end of the convection, but at least there is convection. Probably will help it in the long run if it can avoid interaction with Honduras. Hopefully the 18z GFS is wrong keeping it a weak TS.
  11. Amped
    90% chance per NHC 2pm , now appears as if it will develop. There is a lot of spread in the intensity guidance, as one would expect with a small storm. Currently disorganized with multiple centers, it will probably consolidate near the centroid some time tonight or tomorrow. [img]https://i.imgur.com/t0GhtpX.png[/img]
  12. Amped
    Slight change in the HWRF from last run
  13. Amped
    12Z GFS has a storm again. ICON and CMC also have it. This would make for one of the larger flip flops I've seen models do if it verifies.
  14. Amped
    Gonna post Josh's Twitter on Roslyn. Sounds pretty insane.
  15. Amped
    00z gfs and 00z CMC are in. They are in somewhat better agreement although the CMC is further west. They both agree that the upper level troff lifting out from 120hrs-132hrs will be the instigating event. THE SW end of it gets left behind in the E Caribbean and forms a TC when the trade winds resume to the north of it. If the ridging over the gulf day 7-10 verifies It will likely force the storm to go over Nicaragua or Honduras.
  16. Amped
    Drifting around the Caribbean for 10 days in October/November doesn't really seem to likely. Probably going to get picked up by a troff or tucked under the ridge into the central American coast a lot sooner. It pulls some Mahomes moves this run to stay over water.
  17. Amped
    Okay the 00z CMC has a storm, now I'm officially interested since it's on at least 2 models. 00z GFS says it's >50% of the ACE for the entire 2022 season. Seems to be the trend for the GFS this season.
  18. Amped
  19. Amped
    Nothing in the foreseeable future.
  20. Amped
    Gfs is pure hurricane porn. Slow wnw track, just keeps getting bigger and stronger as it moves towards the Yucatan.
  21. Amped
    Not an immediate threat. Any development will not occur until the weekend in the central Caribbean like some EPS and GEFS members are showing.
  22. Amped
    Icon is trying to develop something at 120hrs in the S central Caribbean. This is close to what the EPS members had. If 90L develops it will be this weekend or early next week after it gets past the ULL.
  23. Amped
    Ian certainly had the capacity to kill hundreds if they didn't evacuate. Keep in mind there are a lot of elderly in the Ft Myers area plenty with limited physical capability or special medication needs.
  24. Amped
    I'd feel much better about it's long term prospects if it didn't have the ULL to survive. It will likely reverse most of the organization that occurs in the next 36hrs.
  25. Amped
    In Maria and Katrina a lot of deaths occurred in the humanitarian crisis after the storm. something to keep in mind.
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