Yes we definitely see this movie a lot, especially with juicy systems coming up from the gulf coast states. The 2016 blizzard was not expected to hit Somerset-Allentown-NYC as hard as it did. I can easily see this band setting up over I95 or MOCO.
Was in the 60s the day before the March 2018 snowstorm in Frederick. Snow had no problem accumulating 18hrs later.
Models are showing temps dropping 29/30F in the city with upper 20s north and west. Warm ground is a big factor when it's 32/33 and snowing lightly. 29 and dumping 2"/hr is going to be a flash freeze and a commutemageddon if we didn't have the day off.
CMC, RGEM, and EURO look similar probably correct.
GFS, HRRR shows the same track but amounts are probably overdone.
ICON, NAM too far south, not on the winning team
UKMET probably too far south but better than the ICON, NAM.
I can see not going with 10+ totals on the GFS because of possible mixing issues at the start.
2-4" is really low balling it though. Factor in a probable flash freeze and it's almost 100% chance of a high impact event that deserves a WSW.
Going to be a tough forecast for the NW burbs. They're just beyond the sharp cutoff of a storm trending NW.
Probably need warnings up all the way to the MD line based on experience with past storms.