That is a pretty impressive 500mb vortex ready to plow over us on the NAM 84. Only mentioning it cause the Euro was similar.
That vortex is the driver of this potential event. Assuming it tracks right over us as shown, it will ring out any available moisture in the atmosphere even if that's not much.
So if the H5 track holds and the surface is cold enough it can easily over-perform similar to the 1/6/2015 clipper.