Amped
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Everything posted by Amped
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ADT only off by 20mb.
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Of course the 5mb/hrs stuff only happens between recons outside radar.
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That was almost 8 hrs over land without taking much of an intensity hit.
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The ECMWF was the furthest south and likely will end up pretty accurate unless it drifts a lot further southwest.
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The troff is unmissable. It's flushing out the western 3rd of the Atlantic and the entire Caribbean.
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Guess it's a matter of taste, some like the exact center, some like the right front quad eyewall. Based on this, I'd put Ponce on the exceeded cat1 expectations list.
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Was actually expecting to see Josh here.
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Down sloping could be enhancing the MV in the NW eyewall. It doesn't seem to be circulating the eye like a typical MV would.
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It's in range of PR now. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/RadarArchive/TJUA2/loop.html
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Don't know what the HWRF is doing. Has it deepening from 1004 MB to 985MB in 3 hrs. HMON shows a similar convective burst and quick deepening before PR, but it's over 24hrs not 3
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You know it's desperation time when someone posts the geps.
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Yeah this is a very intensity dependent track. If it's stronger the deep layer steering turns it north. I am leaning weaker since shear really seems to be kicking it's ass right now and I don't see much change in the upper level wind configuration over the next few days.
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The GFS caved to the Navgem. Has the storm bombing out between PR and Bermuda in fairly strong SW shear. Probably way overdone.
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Earl looks the best it has so far. 90kt 954mb latest estimate, and it might still be improving, so cat3 not out of reach.
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It's gonna rain.
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Deepening in about 25kt of SW shear.
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A hurricane, just not a pretty looking one.
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The 2010 parade of Central Atlantic fish storms has returned. Any chance for a landfall will be over Bermuda, or northeastern lesser Antilles. It's also possible something phases and hits Europe or NF.
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WPAC, Indian Ocean, and Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclones
Amped replied to 1900hurricane's topic in Tropical Headquarters
Thoughts and prayers to TD13. Hinnamnor was really hungry. Edit: Still hanging in there on visible -
It's going to be a close call next week for Cabo San Lucas. Ignore the Euro intensity because it's probably under done unless this stays close to land.
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Anyone catch the 12z Euro SE of NF. Looks like some sort of a warm core or hybrid system. It's the best thing in the basin on this run. At least the Epac may produce something interesting next week.
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Today's 12z Euro was disappointing. for the entire basin. Hopefully it's wrong.
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The happy hour GFS was a good laugh between the fake storm in the western gulf and the circle back track into NC/SC.
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Every model has fake tropical cyclones occasionally. Only the GFS insists on an absolute beast for 6 days in a row when no other model is showing it.
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Everything seems to be disappearing on models once it gets inside 5 days.
