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Amped

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Everything posted by Amped

  1. Amped
    Doesn't do it justice, a lot of those will be EF2+
  2. Amped
    Taking almost the same track as the last one.
  3. Amped
    Another cell in eastern ARK looks like it's got a couplet forming. Edit E of Marvell Ark needs a warning
  4. Amped
    That one does not look like it's going away quickly. Possible long tracker.
  5. Amped
    The new hrr doesn't show things going full linear until 5z.
  6. Amped
    Right on schedule, 230pm local time is when most big outbreak days usually start cranking out TW.
  7. Amped
    Wow wasn't expecting a double high risk area
  8. Amped
    Can't wait to get fringed. It's not winter until models pull the rug out from under us inside 60 hrs
  9. Amped
    If I told you that we would get near record setting Greenland blocks in December and March would anyone of the long range forecasters have predicted we'd get no snow from either?
  10. Amped
    This was the least snowy winter that I have been through. Worse than 97-98, 02-03, 11-12, and 19-20 at the locations I was in at those times.
  11. Amped
    If I extrapolate the rate it snowed here this winter, it will take us 65 years to get that much snow
  12. Amped
    12z CMC was the best run by far. Even if it showed no snow, it was perfect with the high position SLP track and 500mb track. I'll take my chances with that.
  13. Amped
    If that setup can't get us an inch of snow this is officially the worst winter on record.
  14. Amped
    The heavy band in SW CT will likely become a death band once it gets into a spot cold enough for snow. Edit: This matches the NAM and FV3 hires pretty well. RGEM and HRRR maybe moving it east to quickly. Looks determined to push NW at the moment.
  15. Amped
    Hurricane season starts early and ends late on the 3k NAM
  16. Amped
    That's some really poor agreement on a 24hr forecast.
  17. Amped
    Fairly obvious melting layer showing up on CC.
  18. Amped
    Both the GFS and NAM now have the low doing a complete lap around the Mass coast.
  19. Amped
    The extra hour of sunlight isn't helpful unless if the frigging sun doesn't come out in the first place
  20. Amped
    GFS like 150 miles different than 18z with the low placement at 36hrs. Not your typical swing. Luckily most of it is along track and doesn't effect amounts as much as you'd think.
  21. Amped
    I'm starting to have high confidence the lower elevations of CT will see very little if any accumulation. It's eastern mass that's uncertain with whatever meso-bomb goes off when the low stalls over the CAPE and pivots enough to get the flow out of the northeast.
  22. Amped
    This should be a rather helpful guide.
  23. Amped
    Gfs went back to its 00z solution almost exactly
  24. Amped
    Precip maps have over 4" liquid in south central CT.
  25. Amped
    GFS and ICON elongate the low, CMC overdeepens it. RGEM, NAM and JMA actually look the least weird so far LOL. Edit: I'm going with the RGEM Kuchara map since it's doing the least amount of funny stuff and matches well with the average model run over the last few days.
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