If I told you that we would get near record setting Greenland blocks in December and March would anyone of the long range forecasters have predicted we'd get no snow from either?
12z CMC was the best run by far. Even if it showed no snow, it was perfect with the high position SLP track and 500mb track. I'll take my chances with that.
The heavy band in SW CT will likely become a death band once it gets into a spot cold enough for snow.
Edit: This matches the NAM and FV3 hires pretty well. RGEM and HRRR maybe moving it east to quickly. Looks determined to push NW at the moment.
GFS like 150 miles different than 18z with the low placement at 36hrs. Not your typical swing. Luckily most of it is along track and doesn't effect amounts as much as you'd think.
I'm starting to have high confidence the lower elevations of CT will see very little if any accumulation. It's eastern mass that's uncertain with whatever meso-bomb goes off when the low stalls over the CAPE and pivots enough to get the flow out of the northeast.